It’s early in free agency, the evidence is fairly thin and we are mostly reading tea leaves, but the best guess as of today is that the Yankees have a much better chance to keep Aaron Judge than the Mets have to hold onto Jacob deGrom. 

The Yankees’ hopes have risen and fallen in recent weeks, but one club executive said he felt more “confident” now than he had previously, and two Yankees people volunteered that Judge’s wife Samantha Bracksieck ran the New York City Marathon on Sunday, hopefully wondering if that was a positive sign. (A rival agent wondered if that might actually be a ploy to show other teams of interest in New York, but from here running a marathon seems like a lot of trouble to undertake as a fakeout measure.) Meantime, folks who have spoken to the Mets lately opine that they believe deGrom seems pretty likely to leave. 

While the Yankees understandably have made Judge easily their No. 1 priority, with general manager Brian Cashman gushing about the myriad reasons he’s so valuable to them, the Mets have suggested no particular free-agent priority order. The quick record agreement with star closer Edwin Diaz, and the enthusiasm they showed in that pursuit, may in fact suggest it was he — and not deGrom — who topped their list.