We introduce the NFL’s 30th overall draft choice: Reggie James Davis.
RJD is a 6-foot-1 University of Virginia cornerback who eventually should become a starter, although he’s more likely to flop than become a Pro Bowler.
He projects to be just good enough to earn a second contract. By the end of his career, he’ll have lasted about six seasons, including his attempts to latch on with another club. Expect RJD to start 60 percent of the games he plays.
You won’t find additional information about RJD in Dane Brugler’s 2021 NFL Draft Guide or by searching the internet because he’s a composite of all 30th overall selections since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger, here to augur expectations for the first-round slot assigned to the Buffalo Bills.
While the phrase “first-round draft pick” implies a premium prospect, an analysis shows choices made near the bottom of the order are closer to a roulette spin than a sure thing.
For instance, since the merger, 25.6 percent of all 30th overall picks were selected for a Pro Bowl while 14 percent didn’t play a third season with the teams that drafted them and 34.9 percent didn’t reach a fourth season.
Our fictional Reggie James Davis gained his identity through the numbers. Reggie and variations of James have been the most common first names drafted 30th overall, with Davis the most frequent surname.
And what is in a name?