The Chicago Cubs are doing it again. While most the MLB and its fans are enamored with Bryce Harper’s Phillies or busy focusing on the darling Minnesota Twins or the powerhouse New York Yankees, the Chicago Cubs are on pace for their fifth consecutive 90-plus win season.
Their run has been historic and impressive, even if it’s being overlooked. PECOTA, a projection system and the brainchild of Baseball Prospectus, predicted the Cubs to win just 79 games this season. The system, of course, got it wrong.
PECOTA also projected the Cubs to finish last in the NL Central, the division they lead by two games with more than a third of the season in the rearview. That’s not going to happen.
The big picture: Chicago is going win at least 90 games, win the division and make some noise in October for the fifth year in a row.
What the projections got wrong: For the most part, PECOTA does a fairly accurate job of projecting team win totals. We don’t really hear the uproar when a team PECOTA projects to finish right around .500 finishes right around .500. The projections, though, have been sorely mistaken in the past. The system predicted the Kansas City Royals to win 72 games in 2015. They won 95 and the World Series.