What we all love about the NFL is there’s always something to talk about, no matter the time of the season. It should be a dead period of news, but we have 2021 CBA negotiation discussion and now, NFL MVP talk thanks to Louis Riddick.
Earlier this week, Riddick proclaimed his 2019 NFL MVP winner to be Carson Wentz:
Fortune favors the bold and this is a bold prediction. Now, I can vibe with bold predictions, especially when we put some odds behind it. Wentz is +1600 to take home the NFL MVP award, according to odds released by FanDuel earlier this month. That would give Wentz the seventh-best odds to win this award.
While Wentz is talented (duh) and has weapons plus that outstanding Eagles offensive line, he’s proven that staying healthy is an issue. His back isn’t stable and an awkward hit to the area could put him on injured reserve again. I can’t lay my money on him, so who do I put the money on? Let’s go over it.
Patrick Mahomes +600
Mahomes is the favorite to win again after taking home the 2018 MVP award. He lit the NFL on fire last season with 50 touchdowns and more than 5,000 yards passing. Only two other quarterbacks have thrown 50 touchdown passes in a season. The first was Tom Brady in 2007 and the second was Peyton Manning in 2013. Neither followed up with the same type of production the next season (though Brady was injured in 2008).
I expect Mahomes to have a slight drop-off as well. Mahomes could be without Tyreek Hill, too. If Hill is out, Mahomes will still complete a high percent of passes, but the big yards after the catch could disappear. Secondly, teams have spent all offseason trying to figure out ways to stop Mahomes. I wouldn’t put my money on Mahomes.
Andrew Luck +900
Luck is a baller. We know this. However, he’s never put up MVP-type numbers in his career. Can he do it this season? Yes, he could. Last season, with a new offense and coming off an injury, he threw for nearly 4,600 yards, 39 touchdowns, and completed 67 percent of passes. Luck needs to add five or six touchdowns and 400 yards, and he will have the numbers.
However, I worry about the Colts’ record. The last six quarterback MVPs have guided teams who have at least played in their conference title games. Are the Colts ready for that yet? They won’t be the favorite against the Chiefs or Patriots. While Luck can play at a MVP level, I wouldn’t bet on him winning the award either.
Drew Brees +1000
Nope. It’s clear Drew Brees is finally starting to show his age — just a bit. Plus, the Saints have become a more balanced offense with their rushing attack. In 2016, Brees threw 673 times for 5,208 yards. In 2017, he was down to 536 attempts and 4,334 yards.