The course of free agency is always difficult to predict in the NBA, but the 2020 offseason could make previous years seem like a color-by-number worksheet.
Thanks to the months-long hiatus, seeding games and playoffs without fans and a general decline in television ratings, the 2020-21 salary cap—as well as which teams will have cap space—is a mystery.
If purse strings are tightened around the league, we may not see as many contracts signed that are immediately thought of as albatrosses, but there are sure to be a few.
Again, it's just difficult to forecast the players to which those might go.
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Restricted free agency often yields strange results.
Think back to Allen Crabbe's four-year, $75 million deal in 2016. He was coming off a decent season in which he averaged 10.3 points and shot 39.3 percent from three. But his box plus/minus was well below average, and living up to that deal would've required him hitting his absolute ceiling.
So, why did he get paid so much? The Brooklyn Nets, like many teams chasing restricted free agents, threw out an inflated offer sheet to push the incumbent organization. The Portland Trail Blazers matched and then traded Crabbe just over a year later. He's 314th in the league in wins over replacement player since that deal was signed.
The Sacramento Kings now face a similar situation with Bogdan Bogdanovic this offseason. To be clear, Bogdanovic is a better all-around player than Crabbe was in 2016, but he's also four years older than the former Blazers wing was at the time.
Though he's now 28 years old, some team with cap space will go after Bogdanovic and his averages of 15.1 points and 3.4 assists with an above-average three-point percentage. And with a disgruntled Buddy Hield on the roster, the Kings may have a little extra pressure to match whatever offer sheet Bogdanovic signs.
If that means something in the neighborhood of $20 million per year, Sacramento's upcoming cap situation could get tricky.
If Hield doesn't get traded, his $94 million extension will kick in for the Kings next season, and the second contracts for both De'Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley III are around the corner.
Bogdanovic is good, though he's certainly not a superstar. The Kings will have to think long and hard about whether to match a massive offer.
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A couple of caveats before we dive into this one:
If he chooses to opt out, though, there's a decent chance he signs a deal that will be difficult to justify.
DeMar DeRozan has a $27.7 million player option for the 2020-21 season, so he may well pick that up and remain a San Antonio Spur.
He, like everyone else on this list, is a good player.