Get ready for yet another wild NFL offseason of quarterback movement -- which is already underway after Tom Brady announced Wednesday morning that he's retiring from the NFL after 23 seasons. Stars like Lamar Jackson, Daniel Jones and Geno Smith are on expiring contracts, a handful of big names could be on the move via a trade and the draft class is loaded with first-round signal-callers. So with 30 teams already thinking ahead to next season, let's look closer at the QB carousel.
We asked our NFL Nation reporters to serve as GMs for their teams and decide what to do at their most important position. The stand-in GMs put together trade packages for passers who could be made available by their teams and pitched contract offers to free agents, with national reporter Dan Graziano playing the role of player rep to "sign" new deals here. They also projected franchise tags and cap casualty cuts. And finally, they mocked the first two rounds of the 2023 draft to address the future.
We kept this exercise to quarterbacks who will either start or compete to start in 2023, with the exception of a few draft picks who might sit in Year 1. And the object for this project wasn't to "win" negotiations but rather to accurately reflect how a team might approach the QB market. So which teams landed a new starting quarterback? Let's predict this offseason's QB movement with some hypothetical trade offers, free agent signings and draft picks.
TRADE OFFERS
We might not have trades of last offseason's magnitude, when Russell Wilson went to the Broncos and Deshaun Watson joined the Browns -- though that could change if Green Bay decides to make Aaron Rodgers available. But reporters still made trade offers to two teams (represented by their own reporters) for quarterbacks who might be available.
Derek Carr, Raiders
Contract status: Carr signed a three-year, $121.5 million extension last spring, which included a no-trade clause. Las Vegas has a three-day window after the Super Bowl to cut Carr for a salary-cap hit of $5.6 million. If not, his $32.9 million salary for next season and $7.5 million of his salary for 2024 would become guaranteed. Trades won't become official until March, which means any team trading for Carr would take on that guaranteed money -- and Carr has the right to veto any move.
Jets' offer: 2023 third-round pick for Carr. The Jets want to keep Zach Wilson in a backup role, so they will need an experienced win-now starter. Carr will be 32 next season and has proved durable (91 straight starts before his Week 17 benching), and he has the kind of accuracy (64.6% career completion percentage) that fits the Jets' West Coast offense. Turnovers are a concern (28 interceptions over the past two seasons), but he had to play a lot of catch-up on the defensively challenged Raiders. Carr has never had a defense ranked higher than 20th in points allowed. The Jets' defensive unit can support him. -- Rich Cimini
Saints' offer: 2023 third- and fourth-round picks for Carr. He would be reunited with Saints coach Dennis Allen, who drafted him and made the decision to start him as a rookie. This would give the Saints more clarity at quarterback, but they would once again need to work salary-cap magic to fit Carr onto the roster. That'd likely require taking most of his base salary and converting it to a signing bonus, then adding years to the deal to spread out the hit. -- Katherine Terrell
RAIDERS' DECISION: Carr vetoes move to New Orleans. The Raiders would no doubt like to recoup something in a trade for Carr. But his statement wishing fans farewell leaves Las Vegas with little-to-no leverage, especially given his no-trade clause. The Raiders would prefer the Saints' offer, but Carr has to sign off on any deal -- and he likely wouldn't accept a trade at this point, knowing that he could probably end up a free agent in a month's time.
