Last season, Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor rushed for 1,811 yards to win the rushing title. We have created a small cheat sheet containing all of this year's rushing yardage odds.
Several sportsbooks have posted season-long totals on player props in advance of the NFL season. To see if there are any significant gaps between the projections and the betting markets, I decided to cross-reference these totals with the projections from Fantasy Pros, ESPN, and Pro Football Focus. To help the sportsbooks combat potential injuries, many of the projections will be higher than the totals.
The following are some of the players who stand out to me after comparing their projections to their player prop totals for the upcoming season.
Total Rushing Yards: Best Bets
· Harris Under 1150.5 yards (-115 via DraftKings)
Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers: Under 1150.5 yards (-115 via DraftKings)
A lot of totals are lower than projections to help protect against potential injuries, so it is difficult to find many scenarios where projections for a player actually fall below their totals. So when you see a player come in below their projection, which assumes they are playing in all 17 games, you should take note.
In terms of Najee Harris's rushing prop, I favor the Under this season, and I am pleased to see that the projections are in agreement with me. Since Ben Roethlisberger was nothing short of awful last season, Harris was given a heavy workload. Last season, only Jonathan Taylor of the Indianapolis Colts had more rushing attempts than Harris.
Even with 307 rushing attempts last season, Harris only exceeded this total by 49.5 yards. Seeing those numbers should raise an alarm in your head. I am a big fan of the Under on Harris' 1150.5 rushing yards this season.