Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for 11 years.

In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting comps for each individual player.

As a disclaimer, I should note that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.

Please note that service time is not yet official, nor is the Super Two cutoff known.  Plus, a good number of these players will be removed from the 40-man roster before arbitration can be filed.

If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription.


Angels (5)

Junior Guerra – $1.3MM

Phil Gosselin – $1.5MM

Max Stassi – $2.7MM

Mike Mayers – $2.2MM

Franklin Barreto – $700K


Astros (6)

Rafael Montero – $3.1MM

Aledmys Diaz – $4.0MM

Phil Maton – $1.4MM

Ryne Stanek – $2.1MM

Josh James – $700K

Framber Valdez – $3.2MM


Athletics (11)

Sean Manaea – $10.2MM

Chris Bassitt – $8.8MM

Chad Pinder – $2.8MM

Matt Chapman – $9.5MM

Matt Olson – $12.0MM

Tony Kemp – $2.2MM

Frankie Montas – $5.2MM

Lou Trivino – $2.9MM

Pete Kozma – $600K

Deolis Guerra – $900K

Ramon Laureano – $2.8MM