OK, what just happened?

That seismic shift you just felt on the NBA landscape? That was one of the wildest months in NBA history shaking up your favorite team; your parents' favorite team; your uncle's favorite team; heck, even the cat's favorite team.

Even All-NBA teams weren't safe. Six of the 15 players selected for those honors will play in different cities next season.

We've never seen turnover like this before.

And what's left in the wake of the Toronto Raptors' first title, the toppling of the Golden State Warriors dynasty and a whirlwind free-agency period is a level of parity the NBA hasn't seen in years.

According to FiveThirtyEight's statistical projection, two teams (the Philadelphia 76ers and Houston Rockets) have a better-than-20-percent chance to win the title. The Los Angeles Lakers and Milwaukee Bucks are both over 10 percent. In total, nine teams have at least a 2 percent shot at winning it all. And Philly leads the way at just 28 percent.

The same model gave the Warriors a 49 percent shot at the outset of 2018-19. It was 39 the year before.

And that's just one way of looking at the new NBA. Take a stroll around the internet, and you'll find a number of different teams leading power rankings.

There are various arguments for various orders. But here, the endeavor is more about the tiers. These teams are so close right now. And it's easier to lump them into groups than make definitive statements at each of 30 spots.

They'll still be ranked that way. Because, of course, these are power rankings. Just expect loads of fluctuation this season. Things could change on a night-to-night basis. For fans of the league, that should be exciting.

The Tank Is Coming

30. Cleveland Cavaliers

FiveThirtyEight's Projected Wins: 21

There is some intriguing talent in Cleveland right now.

Collin Sexton's 40.2 three-point percentage exceeded expectations after he hit only 33.6 percent of his treys in college. Darius Garland projects as a good scorer alongside Sexton. Dylan Windler can shoot the lights out. Cedi Osman has some point forward potential. Kevin Love and Larry Nance are still around.

Still, it feels like this team is a couple years away from competitiveness. FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO projection system predicts Sexton, Garlandand Osman will post negative wins above replacement.

If and when Love is traded to a winning team, those three will be expected to carry even more responsibility. 


29. New York Knicks

FiveThirtyEight's Projected Wins: 23

New York has one of the NBA's most underrated young prospects.

In 2018-19, Mitchell Robinson posted a 5.7 box plus/minus. Michael Jordan, David Robinson and Chris Paul are the only rookies in NBA history who logged at least 1,000 minutes and posted higher box plus/minuses.

His CARMELO projection for wins above replacement pegs him as a borderline top-50 player for 2019-20.

The rest of the roster, though. Whoo-wee...

Kevin Knox is coming off one of the worst rookie campaigns in NBA history. RJ Barrett will probably take some time to develop.

And when the team whiffed on Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, they added a mishmash of veterans, including four power forwards (Julius Randle, Bobby Portis, Taj Gibson and Marcus Morris) who inspire little confidence for immediate success.


28. Charlotte Hornets

FiveThirtyEight's Projected Wins: 26

The Hornets didn't just let Kemba Walker and Jeremy Lamb, their top two scorers last season, go for nothing. That would've been enough to earn poor marks for this free-agency period.

But no, they then replaced them with Terry Rozier (for a shocking $56.7 million over three years) and...checks notes...Robert Franks?

Rozier won't be a negative, but he also won't be worth $56.7 million. And veteran savvy from Nicolas Batum, Marvin Williams and Cody Zeller may help eek out a few wins.

But altogether, this looks like a mess. Perhaps Miles Bridges and Malik Monk will show enough to get fans excited about the future.


27. Washington Wizards

FiveThirtyEight's Projected Wins: 32

The Wizards may have had more turnover than people realize. Trevor Ariza, Jeff Green, Dwight Howard, Jabari Parker, Bobby Portis and Tomas Satoransky are gone (and that last one is big).

In their place? The players from the Lakers' salary dump, Davis Bertans and rookie Rui Hachimura, among others.

Bertans should help right away. He spaces the floor and isn't afraid to let it fly from just about anywhere. Hachimura is a question mark, but on a roster full of those, he'll be asked to contribute right away.

And with John Wall still recovering from a ruptured Achilles, Bradley Beal will once again be called upon to fill a massive offensive role.

If things go south in a hurry, would Washington consider moving its only player with real trade value?

"For now," the Miami Herald's Barry Jackson tweeted, "Wizards have rejected all trade overtures on Beal, a potential 2021 free agent."

If Michael Porter Jr. shows some things in Denver, would a package of him, Gary Harris, filler and picks get the Wizards to budge?

If so, Washington could join a midseason race to the bottom of the standings.

Trending Up

26. Phoenix Suns

FiveThirtyEight's Projected Wins: 36

Ricky Rubio's lack of shooting proved problematic alongside a ball-dominant wing in Donovan Mitchell. When Mitchell had the rock, defenders simply weren't concerned with helping out to Rubio, instead crowding the lane on drives.

So, of course, the Suns saw fit to pair their own rising star with Rubio.

As you can see, stats may be a little higher on the fit than yours truly. It's just hard not to envision the same spacing issues that plagued the Utah Jazz when Rubio played.

That doesn't mean Phoenix didn't get better, though. Deandre Ayton and Mikal Bridges should be improved. Dario Saric is a nice fit next to Ayton.

But going from 19 wins to 36 feels like too big a leap.  

25. Atlanta Hawks

FiveThirtyEight's Projected Wins: 28

The Hawks will rely heavily on youth this season. They may not start games with it, but the all-youngster lineup of Trae Young, Kevin Huerter, Cam Reddish, De'Andre Hunter and John Collins should lead to some #LeaguePassAlerts.

They'll have their growing pains, particularly on defense, but the more they go through this season, the better off they'll be down the road.

The Young/Collins pick-and-roll alone makes this a team worth watching, even if they haven't quite figured out how to win at this level.

24. Memphis Grizzlies

FiveThirtyEight's Projected Wins: 35

Memphis is another team that's just loaded with young talent. And Brandon Clarke inexplicably falling all the way to No. 21 might give the Grizzlies the league's most intriguing young frontcourt.

"Clarke plays with breathtaking bounce on both ends of the floor, and knows how to deploy it effectively and efficiently," SB Nation's Ricky O'Donnell wrote of the NBA Summer League MVP. "He thrives scoring around the basket as the dive man in the pick-and-roll and thinks a step ahead of everyone else defensively."

Because of the presence of Jonas Valanciunas, we may not see a ton of Clarke alongside Jaren Jackson, Jr., but that's Memphis' future. And it's bright.

Those two alongside Ja Morant and Kyle Anderson is an analytically tantalizing young core.   

23. Chicago Bulls

FiveThirtyEight's Projected Wins: 37

The Bulls added a couple veterans in Satoransky and Thaddeus Young that almost bumped them to the next tier (spoiler alert: playoff contenders). And, in the East, Chicago finishing in the top eight wouldn't be shocking.

Like the other teams on this slide, the most interesting players on the roster are young. Lauri Markkanen, Wendell Carter Jr. and Coby White probably need another year or two of seasoning together.

In the meantime, lineups with Satoransky, Young, Zach LaVine and Otto Porter Jr. will give opponents plenty of headaches.

Playoff Contenders, Part I

22. San Antonio Spurs

FiveThirtyEight's Projected Wins: 38

The Spurs defied convention again last year, finishing 30th in the NBA in three-point attempts per game. And this summer, they traded one of their few floor spacers, Bertans, to the Wizards.

With LaMarcus Aldridge a year older, is this the season the three-point-averse Spurs are finally caught? They haven't missed the postseason since 1997.

21. Detroit Pistons

FiveThirtyEight's Projected Wins: 36

Luka Doncic, Draymond Green, James Harden and Jason Kidd are the only players in NBA history who had individual campaigns in which they matched or exceeded Blake Griffin's 2018-19 rebounding percentage, assist percentage and three-point attempt rate.

Sort that list by height, and Griffin has an advantage of at least three inches on everyone.

On a roster so challenged for shooting everywhere else, Griffin will have to stay healthy and be about as brilliant to get Detroit back to the postseason.   

20. Oklahoma City Thunder

FiveThirtyEight's Projected Wins: 41

"The Oklahoma City Thunder's discussions to move nine-time All-Star guard Chris Paul to a new destination are parked, and an increasing expectation exists that he will start the season with the team," ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski wrote.

If Paul plays out the 2019-20 campaign in OKC, this team could be feistier than some expect.