There are a number of reasons Trea Turner is poised to get one of the biggest contracts in free agency this winter, with a chance to crack $300 million.
He is instantly recognizable for his trademark slide. He won a World Series ring in 2019 with the Washington Nationals and his Los Angeles Dodgers had the best record in baseball in 2022. Perhaps most importantly, he has posted the second-most WAR in baseball since 2019 at 20.0 -- trailing only Aaron Judge's 22.3.
While all of that certainly impacts Turner's potential for a huge payday, the path he took to get here could tell us something unique about his future with whichever team lands him this offseason.
As I noted in my two breakdowns of Judge's market, projecting a deal for top free agents is difficult because there are so few comparable players. The best method is to use the best data available to triangulate a comp, then round up or down based on the vibes of the current market.
To start, let's look at some relevant comps' performance in the three years leading into free agency, with an asterisk for periods that include the shortened 2020 season. Here's the top tier of position players in this year's free agent crop (ages are on Opening Day in first year of a new contract):
Judge: 18.0* WAR, 30 years old
Turner: 15.8* WAR, 29 years old
Dansby Swanson: 12.1* WAR, 29 years old
Xander Bogaerts: 12.1* WAR, 30 years old
Carlos Correa: 11.8* WAR, 28 years old