There is no sure thing in football transfers. Indeed, one need only peruse the list of the most expensive signings in football history to reach the conclusion that the correlation between a fee and on field success is, at best, minimal.

Perhaps then it helps that Erling Haaland will not occupy the same rarified stratosphere as Antoine Griezmann, Philippe Coutinho and Eden Hazard. City are paying a little over half the price that those $100 million-plus players went for in a deal where Haaland and his advisors have ensured that most of the money paid for the player's services goes to Haaland and his advisors.

For a $63 million transfer fee, a sizeable agent commission and about $450,000-a-week in wages, City have secured a goal-a-game striker who at 22 might be years from his peak. Here is a diamond that could still do with a bit of polishing, one that could be the jewel in the crown for a team who are on course to win a fourth Premier League title. Pep Guardiola has been coping just fine without a classical striker. Now he has one of the best in the world.

It is not as if City have been short of goals without Haaland. This season, they have scored 145 goals across 56 matches and are on course to end the campaign with a triple figure goal difference. The oft-mentioned lack of a central striker has reared its head in how many games this season? Perhaps the defeat to Tottenham where a host of crosses flashed across Hugo Lloris' six-yard box? One might argue the Champions League semifinal defeat to Real Madrid, but that would be to confuse an off day for Riyad Mahrez with a lack of finishing quality (the Algerian has outperformed his expected goals in every one of the last five Premier League seasons).

Haaland will help them swell those goal returns or at least explore the outer reaches of how many one team can feasibly score. He is an easier fit into Guardiola's system than might be assumed. For a 21-year-old, he has preternatural understanding of how to manipulate defenses, perfect to dart onto Kevin De Bruyne and Joao Cancelo's crosses from level with the box or indeed to sweep in behind for those classic City cutbacks.

After all, he is already doing the latter. His sizeable Dortmund portfolio is filled with moments when he makes the right run at the right moment to meet a teammate's cutback.

His movement is impeccable. For some time in this move, Haaland wanders into an offside position, his chief defender Benjamin Hubner might even think he is safe to leave him there. The young Norwegian knows better. There are more ways in which the play will swing toward him than away from him. The onrushing Donyel Malen could go beyond Haaland, regardless if he gets the ball from his give-and-go, Kevin Vogt will feel compelled to drop back.