NFL MVP discussions are always fun, but in the eyes of the oddsmakers, there is no debate. No player’s absence influences his team’s odds more than Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Three different Vegas oddsmakers told us Rodgers was the most valuable player on NFL odds in the league. “I think that he is the most impactful on his team odds,” Jason Simbal, CG Technology vice president of risk, told Covers. “One book had the Packers at -6.5 against the Saints before the injury and now it’s 5 the other way (Saints -5). No other player would have that impact.” The New Orleans Saints are only the second team since the start of the 2014 season to be favored at Lambeau Field. "With Aaron Rodgers in the lineup, the Packers are 6-point favorites at home (vs. New Orleans)," Wynn Las Vegas sportsbook director Johnny Avello told Covers. "Now they're a 5.5 point underdog, so do the math. That's 11.5 points. That's what he's worth. It's actually around 10, but it could be a littler higher, certainly in this circumstance, looking at how the backups are." Green Bay was a 3.5-point favorite at Bookmaker.eu’s in-game betting to beat the Minnesota Vikings the play before linebacker Anthony Barr crashed into Rodgers and forced the quarterback to leave the contest with what turned out to be a broken collarbone. The next play the in-game odds changed to Packers +2.5 and then quickly to +3. The score of the game at the time of the injury was still 0-0. Bettors and bookmakers alike weren’t overly impressed with what Rodgers’ understudy, Brett Hundley, did in the rest of the game against Minnesota. “Most starting quarterbacks are worth three or four points (to the spread),” Mirage sportsbook manager Jeff Stoneback told Covers. “Rodgers is worth over a touchdown (seven points) himself. There’s sometimes not as much of a drop off because there isn’t a big gap between the starter and the backup. That’s not the case here.” Rodgers’ injury doesn’t just affect the Packers weekly game odds. Green Bay was among the top favorites to win the Super Bowl at +500 in Vegas at the Westgate SuperBook and +700 offshore at Bookmaker.eu. When the books reopened their Super Bowl odds on Monday morning, the Packers had dropped to +1600 at the Westgate and +2500 at Bookmaker.eu. Rodgers, a two-time winner of AP NFL MVP Award, was the favorite to take home the honors again this season. Entering Week 6, Sportsbook.ag listed A-Rod at +180 with Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith the next closest at +300.
Aaron Rodgers is the MVP to the spread and there's no debate according to Vegas
Covers.com | Oct 19