NFL Picks

"Actor Todd Thomas is a transplanted New Yorker living in Southern California and he seldom gambles. But once Thomas found out that the Giants were double-digit underdogs to New England in this year's Super Bowl, he jumped at the chance to place his money on New York to win. It turned out to be a great decision when the Giants upset the Patriots, 17-14, on Sunday."

"Disappointment surely is running deep this morning, as loyal Patriots fans cope with losing the Super Bowl, the perfect season, their team’s place in history. And the salt in the wound is the fact that they also lost more money."

"The 1972 Dolphins didn't get a ton of respect from the marketplace, either. The Fins opened a slight (-1) choice over the Redskins in Super Bowl VII. But a couple of days before the game, a concerted market move resulted in the 'Skins achieving marginal favoritism."

"The Giants will score their points, as the Eli who throttled the Pack can generate enough offense to provoke sustained Patriots counter-aggression. Over 54, where are you? (For one unit)."

"The Pats, coupled with the Giants, have generated the highest over/under betting line in Super Bowl history."

"Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning outduel Bill Belichick and Tom Brady? Please. Perfection is achieved in, of all places, Bill Bidwill's house. Patriots 33, Giants 17"

"The Patriots are the football version of whack-a-mole. You slam them down one way, they beat you another. Too much, even for the courageous Giants."

"But the Patriots will not let this opportunity pass without one last shining moment of greatness. Like Tiger Woods, they will not only accomplish what nobody really thought possible, they will do so with a dominating display that will cap off a perfect season. Great teams do great things on big stages."

"So The Post asked Mickelson to exclusively break down the game and he obliged. He said he's somewhat torn between seeing history unfold with the Patriots completing the circle and finishing 19-0 and rooting for the underdog Giants. In the end, though, Mickelson say he wants to see history unfold."

"Give Bill Belichick two weeks to game plan for an opponent, and he's bound to come up with something special. He's sure to find a way to disrupt Eli Manning, who has been flawless in the playoffs. "

"Nobody expected the Giants to be here, including some of them -- even if they won't admit it publicly. So the fact that few expect them to win won't faze them. Still, the Patriots have way too many options on offense and a solid offensive line to give Tom Brady time to use them."

"The Giants will put up a great fight, and their pass rush will keep them in the game. As they've done all season, Tom Brady and the Pats' offense will make the plays when needed. Randy Moss hasn't done much in the playoffs, but that changes Sunday night."

"Giants (+12) over Patriots: Defenses seem to have figured out Brady's game. Randy Moss has been neutered in the playoffs by defenses that don't rush the passer near as well as New York. "

"For the record, as soon as the Super Bowl point spread was published — it opened as high as 14 points in a couple of Las Vegas sports books, 131/2 points at most others and ultimately was bet down to 12 — I knew I liked the New York Giants and the points in Super Bowl XLII."

"HERE'S WHAT TO expect Sunday, and a fantasy-style look at some of the Super Bowl props that'll have you lining up at the cashier's window Monday morning. Let's break the game down into four areas, creating 27 rooting interests. When the Patriots have the ball "

"No matter what happens with the Super Sunday selection, I'll finish at least a dozen games over .500, and the playoff run (8-1-1) has been making it very tough to fit my wallet - and I hope yours - in my back pocket."

"The Buffalo News' NFL staff makes its picks in the National Football League: Bills beat writers Mark Gaughan and Allen Wilson, columnists Jerry Sullivan and Bob DiCesare, Sunday Playbook writer Milt Northrop and reporter Rodney McKissic."

"The road warrior Giants picked up more than a few friends in Las Vegas on their way to Arizona."

"Some of you might have wised up a while ago, shortly after that scorching 8-0 start against the spread. Some of you might have needed more time, but yesterday was the time to put the pride away and take the other team."

"The Giants New York Giants are doing so many things dead-right, and got away with fielding a decimated secondary against the Cowboys because they covered the vital Dallas talent so well. But this is about Brett Favre and Eli Manning Eli Manning , both of whom played their college ball in Mississippi."

"PACKERS (-7) over Giants; Under 391/2: Trying to beat Brett Favre in January - at Lambeau - is tough enough."

"Packers 20, Giants 10 The magic ride for the Giants ends in a Green Bay deep freeze that Brett Favre navigates a bit better than Eli Manning."

"The Giants’ ride to the NFC championship game has indeed been magical. They have unified behind embattled coach Tom Coughlin. Winning nine straight games on the road is an impressive feat no matter how you look at it."

"Giants at Packers: New York may be the second-hottest team next to the unbeaten Patriots, but the Giants may have met their match this time around. Eli Manning usually doesn’t perform well in adverse weather conditions so Sunday’s forecast isn’t good news for him."

"Green Bay has too much weather mojo and the national Favre lovefest isn't going to allow the Giants to get close to a cover here. Final score: Packers 26, Giants 12."

"The cheeseheads are flooding Las Vegas with Packer money. 'We just went to 7½ [from 7] an hour ago,' Robert Walker, sports book director at the MGM Mirage, told The Post at 6:30 Eastern time last night."

"Gamblers will bet more than $35 million on Sunday's NFC Championship Game between the Giants and Packers - a contest that's turning out to be the biggest football betting draw outside of the Super Bowl, bookmakers and casino operators said."

"Bookmakers who established the Green Bay Packers as a seven-point favorite to defeat the New York Giants on Sunday are expected to raise the spread to seven-and-a-half over the weekend to attract more bets on the Giants."

"We're OK with 3-1 both ways in last week's playoff round, grand-marshaled by our big, outright-upset bull's-eye on Giants winning in Dallas. Also hit with underdog Jaguars and Chargers both covering. Didn't see Colts losing, though; hadn't even given that one a thought. By the way, how much laughter would have resulted at any point this season by the suggestion that the Manning still playing Jan. 20 would be Eli, not Peyton?"

"Last week's record: 2-2. Season record: 176-88. Chargers (13-5) at Patriots (17-0) TV/radio: 2 p.m. Sunday; WBBM-Ch. 2, WSCR-AM 670. Line: Patriots by 13 1/2. Last meeting: Patriots won 38-14 at New England on Sept. 16. Key stat: Patriots have scored at least 20 points in 23 straight games."

"AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME GAME: San Diego Chargers (13-5) at New England Patriots (17-0), 3 p.m., Sunday"

"GIANTS AT PACKERS (-7) The wild card Giants have won nine in a row on the road, but they face an uphill task Sunday on the Frozen Tundra. Not only are they facing a team that beat them by 22 points earlier this season, but they're up against Brett Favre, who has winning another Super Bowl at the top of his "Bucket List." Pick: Packers by 3 "

"The wild card Giants have won nine in a row on the road, but they face an uphill task Sunday on the Frozen Tundra. "

"COWBOYS (-71/2) over Giants (Under 461/2): Given the cities involved, the NFC East is among the sexiest divisions in the NFL, and this may be the sexiest matchup to be had."

"COWBOYS (-71/2) over Giants: Well-rounded, fresh playoff teams with superior downfield passing games enjoy significant advantages. Giants came through for Cat at Tampa after a shaky start, as Eli Manning Eli Manning demonstrated he enjoys greater upside in good weather, and key Big Blue offensive skill people are relatively healthy. "

"Dallas will get in Manning’s face and confuse him with coverages leading to a 24-14 Cowboys victory."

"With the win, Jerry Jones charters a flight for the team to take a quick trip to Cabo before the NFC title game."

"During the final eight weeks of the regular season, Patriots gamblers got used to losing. Despite winning every game straight up in that stretch, the Pats failed to cover the spread six times. And in most of those contests, they never even sniffed a gambling victory."

"Giants (+7.5) over COWBOYS: Forget about bubble-headed starlets and T.O.'s ankle and all that nonsense. The Cowboys haven't been sharp for a long time, the Giants have been quite sharp and Tony Romo, in the end, isn't all that good. Final score: Giants 23, Cowboys 20."

"The Packers may actually be the team that comes out with early jitters, but with a talented defense and receiving corp, should pull this one out in the end. Packers 31, Seahawks 28. "

"The Seahawks may be a mirage. Though they went 10-6 in the regular season, they play in the weak NFC West and don’t have much of a running game."

"Matt Hasselbeck makes a Lambeau Leap into the NFL elite. Seahawks, 24-20."

"Jacksonville's chance lies in the ability to play keepaway from Tom Brady. Long drives, with heavy doses of both Maurice Drew and Fred Taylor, and efficient strikes by David Garrard."

"The Steelers and the Buccaneers let me down at home last week -- ''They defecated on their own carpets,'' as Granpappy used to say for things like that when I was a small child. I'd say, 'What's `defecated' mean?'' And he'd get all agitated and say, ''Get Granpappy another scotch, boy!'' Where was I? Oh, yeah. At least I greeted the playoffs well vs. the spread, rightly predicting the underdog Titans, Steelers (barely) and Giants all would cover. Granpappy would be so proud, except he's dead."

"We'd all love to come up with some provocative reasons to pick against the home favorites in this weekend's NFL divisional playoff games. Right? Well, you go right ahead. I'm sticking with Tom Brady and Peyton Manning at home in the AFC. In the NFC, I simply won't go against Brett Favre at home in January. And I'm also resisting ESPN's attempt to brainwash us into thinking Tony Romo's weekend Mexican getaway with Jessica Simpson will have anything to do with the Cowboys-Giants game on Sunday."

"GAME: Seattle Seahawks (11-6) at Green Bay Packers (13-3), 4:30 p.m. THE SKINNY: Not surprisingly, the Seahawks do not always fare well on the road, not after traveling from the Great Northwest. And the Packers love to play at home (7-1). Better yet, they have a running game to complement Brett Favre. PREDICTION: Packers, 27-20"

"Randy Moss raised eyebrows after his 23rd touchdown reception by saying, "I don't think me breaking Jerry Rice's record is special." Records haven't impressed the former Viking since college, when he shattered several of Cheech and Chong's marks. Pick: Patriots by 11 "

"It's been accepted for nearly 50 years now, so where do the Redskins come off pushing their 5-11 cornerback as something he's not. He's not a smoot. Pick: Seahawks."

"They also have to play from ahead to give the pass rushers a chance to get after Jeff Garcia, who has beaten the Giants in the playoffs as a 49er and Eagle."

"'Skins came together behind QB Todd Collins to snare final NFC playoff spot, but now, they are traveling cross country on short week to face fresh outfit that rested Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander in second half vs. Falcons. Hasselbeck stays in stroke, and defense rebounds, hard-used 'Skins figure to tire late. Seahawks (-31/2) sail, for one unit."

"Seattle has covered four straight as a home favorite of 31/2-10 points, five straight at home, five straight as a home favorite, five out of six on FieldTurf, six of eight in conference and five of seven following a loss."

"At 5-7, the idea of the Redskins making the playoffs was absurd, yet here they are. Instead of hearing whispers that the game has passed him by, suddenly Joe Gibbs is a wise elder statesman again. This is the NFL."

"After carefully reviewing the game tapes from recent weeks, we've had a change of heart. On Monday, our pick from the gut was Seahawks 24, Redskins 20. Sorry for the reverse, but the tapes don't lie. We call 'em like we see 'em: Collins wins it with a late TD pass to TE Chris Cooley, 24-21."

"Seahawks over Redskins, giving 3½ -- If any team has the right to complain about the wild-card setup, it's Washington. The Redskins played Sunday afternoon to solidify their playoff position, and now must fly across the country to play in Seattle on Saturday afternoon."

"I see the combination of Seattle's defense, the crowd and expected rain making a mortal of Washington's season-saving, super-sub quarterback Todd Collins. Seattle is in its fifth consecutive playoffs, and that counts for something, too. Mostly a venue call, although Washers are a solid pick vs. the spread with that extra half point."

"Seattle 20, Washington 9: It has been a nice late-season run for Redskins, but it ends in the Great Northwest."

"BEARS 20, SAINTS 19: Black & Gold say goodbye to their playoff chances and hello to the offseason, ending their second consecutive season on a losing note at wintry Soldier Field. SEAHAWKS 24, FALCONS 23: Look for Atlanta to give it to the "ol' college try" against the road-weary Sea-bags, who are 1-3 in games they have played this season in an eastern time zone. "

"Herm Edwards returns to the scene of his previous employment. Gutty Brodie Croyle will seek to halt KC's eight-game losing streak, but we much prefer Eric Mangini's game-management skills, thanks."

"Jags in pre-playoff mode, which leaves door open for Gary Kubiak's troops to finalize landmark season. Ride with Texans (-61/2), for one unit."

"Tampa Bay coach Jon Gruden is all about resting his aging team before its NFC wild-card game at home vs. the Giants next weekend. So QB Luke McCown should get the nod over Jeff Garcia, etc. That said, the Bucs will have enough to squeak past Carolina, which is somehow favored to win with undrafted free-agent QB Matt Moore at the controls."

"Lions (+3.5) at Packers: As for history, it won't take anything away from the Lions if Brett Favre goes to the bench early and they end a 16-game road losing streak against the Packers. A victory is a victory. And a loss is a loss. Pick:Packers."

"This is a winnable game for the Rams, but they'll have to score a lot of points to do so. Cardinals 31 Rams 27"

"Chargers (10-5) at Raiders (4-11): Raiders plus-8½ points. (Madrid picked Chargers.) Chargers need to win to nail down No. 3 seed and avoid first-round playoff matchup against Jacksonville, but nothing is easy for Norv Turner."

"Bucs (9-6) vs. Panthers (6-9) Time: 1 p.m., Ch. 13 Line, O/U: Panthers by 3, 36, By about midway through the first quarter, it will be hard to find a marquee player on the field for either team. In hopes of getting healthy for next week's wild-card game against the Giants, the Bucs will keep quarterback Jeff Garcia, left, and most of their star players on the sideline."

"This could have the feel of a preseason game if Packers coach Mike McCarthy chooses to play it safe and starts pulling key players early in the second half. Still, a mix of the Packers' starters and backups should be good enough to beat a Lions team that overachieved to start the season 6-2 and came back to reality."

"I have a tough enough time predicting games that matter. What am I supposed to do here? The Packers are locked in to the No. 2 seed in the NFC."

"Cowboys set franchise record for wins in a season using backups in the second half."

"In a dramatic role reversal, Patriots gamblers who started the season raking in cash hand over fist now are paying a steep price for their team’s run to 16-0."

"Lions at Packers: Prideful Green Bay comes out fast in this one, but it’s the backups who will be left to clean up this mess. Detroit would like to end its futility streak at Lambeau Field. Packers 28, Lions 24."

"The Saints have something to play for, which makes a difference on the final day of the season. They'll take the field with an outside shot at a playoff spot. And Drew Brees is due for a good day at Soldier Field."

"Patriots (-13 1/2) at N.Y. Giants - Not to disappoint the largest TV audience in the history of the world, estimated to be about 47.6 billion viewers, the Pats show what all the fuss is about. Patriots, 38-13."

"New England (-13 1/2) at New York Giants - Yes, the Giants' best players will be resting. Not that they have any choice, because they're on injured reserve. Pick: Giants."

"Tom Brady, Randy Moss and Bill Belichick will get their undefeated season and all the personal records, and their 16-0 mark will consist of 15 wins against teams that were trying to beat them, and one against a team that wasn't."

"Texans can wind up .500 team for first time with win here - while Jags are solidly locked into No. 5 AFC seed and likely wild-card Steeler fracas. Jags in pre-playoff mode, which leaves door open for Gary Kubiak's troops to finalize landmark season. Ride with Texans (-61/2), for one unit."

"Jets has covered five straight following a loss, six of seven in December, five of six in Week 17, four of five in conference, and are 6-1 as a home favorite of 31/2-10 points. Kansas City has dropped four of five following a loss, five of six as an underdog of 31/2-10 points and four straight in conference."

"The Giants (10-5) can talk all they want about playing to win and wanting to be the ones to foil New England's pursuit of perfection. But here's what they and their fans should be rooting for: The Patriots (15-0) jump out to an early three-touchdown lead, allowing Tom Coughlin the excuse to pull his starters at the half."

"Even if the Giants do put forth their best effort, the Patriots are not losing. Tom Brady and Randy Moss have records to break and then they'll take a seat, too. Can we start the playoffs already? Joel's jewel: Lay 'em. Patriots by 17. "

"OVER: Jets / Chiefs; Eagles / Bills; Bengals / Dolphins; Texans / Jaguars; Steelers / Ravens; Falcons / Seahawks; Titans / Colts; Chargers / Raiders; Cardinals / Rams."

"In any case I like Miami in a home-'dog upset. Cincy's generous defense is a bad O's best friend, especially through the air. And I see the Dolphins (having already clinched the No. 1 draft pick) with a massive effort to put a final spritz of cologne on a stinking season -- an intensity Cincy won't match after playing spoiler in upsetting rival Cleveland last week."

"If Giants can control ball with Brandon Jacobs' running, they can effectively shorten game and keep it close to end. The Pick: Pats 27, Giants 20."

"This is the last chance for somebody to end the Patriots' quest for a perfect regular season. But, this is Eli Manning, not Peyton."

"Sports writers Mitch Albom, Nicholas J. Cotsonika and Drew Sharp take their best shots each week at predicting the NFL's winners and losers."

"It's not very often that a team or an individual gets a chance to put the word 'ever' in front of or behind their name. New England will have a chance tomorrow night, and now that the NFL Network has relented, the entire country will get to see history. The Patriots would be the first team ever to finish the regular season at 16-0."

"Somehow, it's appropriate. The Colts' first regular-season game in the Dome in 1984 was a loss to a division rival (23-14 to the Jets). Let's make it a bookend with AFC South rival Tennessee's front-line players handling Indy's backups in the final regular-season game in the Dome. Everything's on the line for the Titans."

"In some ways, the Bills are the opposite of the Eagles, whose rankings of sixth in the NFL on offense and ninth on defense belie a 7-8 record. Buffalo also is 7-8, but ranks 31st offensively and 30th defensively."

"Even if the Steelers are playing their backups, the Ravens are still playing their third-stringers."

"SUNDAY'S GAMES/WEEK 16 SAINTS 27, EAGLES 24: Black & Gold takes care of business and builds the suspense, meaning tonight's Minnesota-Washington game is must-see TV for Who Dat nation. BROWNS 33, BENGALS 30: Cincinnati climbs off the canvas and pushes Cleveland to the brink in Battle of Ohio. "

"BILLS (+21/2) over Giants: Be not afraid to fade a team with throbbing playoff need, especially if that motivation results in a marked-up number, with the Pats on deck for Big Blue."

"SAINTS (-3) over Eagles: Few league teams take as much delight in beating the smug Cowboys as does Philly. Eagles defense did the job, but can't envision visitors sustaining that form vs. high-flying New Orleans offense. Saints (-3) march, for one unit."

"The Chiefs have lost seven straight. The Lions have lost six straight. The Lions couldn't handle the pressure of being in playoff contention. If they play loose and win, that's a further indictment of them. Pick: Lions."

"Packers beat writer Tom Silverstein predicts NFL games this week..."

"Vikings 27-17: As much as we would like to see the Redskins run the table and get into the playoffs, we can't see it happening, especially with Todd Collins at quarterback and the Vikings having the league's top rushing offense and defense."

"Here we go again with yet another this-could-be-Brett Favre's last game at Soldier Field. This time he arrives rejuvenated and a candidate for comeback player of the year."

"The Bears don't have a running game or a dynamic quarterback. Their defense has been plagued by injuries and no longer strikes fear into opponents. About the only thing they have going for them is kick returner Devin Hester, and if the Packers are smart, they'll find a way to neutralize him."

"Packers at Bears: Chicago will come to play, but do you really see Kyle Orton leading the Bears to victory? If Chicago wins, it will be because Green Bay gets careless with the football. I don’t see coach Mike McCarthy allowing that to happen. Packers 31, Bears 17."

"Jeff Garcia will enjoy returning to his old stomping grounds and stomping Niners."

"Cardinals over Falcons... Falcons owner Arthur Blank says he is disappointed Bill Parcells chose a front-office job with the Dolphins over one with the Falcons. But he shouldn't be surprised. Blank wanted to offer the job to a smart guy, and he did."

"They grind out a win behind Julius Jones, Marion Barber to keep homefield edge."