Fantasy Baseball Advice

Bleacher Report: Iwamura traded to Bucs
"According to MLB.com, the Pittsburgh Pirates have acquired second baseman Akinori Iwamura from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for pitcher Jesse Chavez. Let's take a look at the fantasy impact of the deal. The Pirates Iwamura fills a glaring hole for the team, which was created when they traded Freddy Sanchez to the San Francisco Giants during their 2009 purge. Iwamura, who had lost his starting job to Ben Zobrist when he suffered an ACL tear, will provide a steady bat at the top of the lineup. He's a career .281 hitter and has shown a decreasing strikeout rate as he's grown accustomed to life in the major leagues. 2007: 23.2 percent (491 AB) 2008: 20.9 percent (627 AB) 2009: 19.0 percent ..."
Halpin' Hand: Fantasy catcher preview
"Welcome to the 2009-10 fantasy baseball offseason, folks! We're all Yankee fans around here, exulting as our team looks toward clinching its first World Series title in nine long years ... right? No? I'd better shut up, then. These positional previews will appear every Tuesday until around Christmas. My initial position-by-position ranking lists should also be ready by mid-December. I'd do them now, but before most of the free agent dominoes have fallen into place, what's the point? Here we go with the catchers. The Man Joe Mauer, Twins — This guy has three batting titles in five big league seasons, and this year he added a serious amount of power to his arsenal (28 HRs after missing ..."
Wieters 2010 preview
"Matt Wieters was one of the most anticipated players heading into 2009, with fantasy owners waiting with bated breath for him to make his presence felt. Of course, the results fell short of the lofty expectations, as Wieters was kept in the minors until May 29 before being recalled and posting the following line: 354 At-Bats .288 Batting Average (102 Hits) 9 Home Runs 43 RBI 35 Runs 0 Stolen Bases .340 On Base Percentage .412 Slugging Percentage .359 Batting Average on Balls in Play With those numbers in the book and the talent still prevalent, what can we expect from him in 2010? Before I get into my projections, please keep in mind these are extremely preliminary numbers. I'll be ..."
By the Numbers: Power/contact hitters drying up
"Baseball's power trend is sort of like the economy. The numbers tell us that the decline is coming to an end, but things still aren't like they used to be. For the first time since 2006, major leaguers collectively hit more than 5,000 home runs, resulting in a 3.9 percent increase in homers per at-bat. This modest boost did virtually nothing to create a larger pool of power hitters in Fantasy. Last season, 28 batters hit at least 30 home runs, and this year 30 players went deep 30 times or more. Options for mid-level power became more scarce, as there were five fewer players in the 20-plus club this year as compared to last. Though it would have seemed absurd to say this earlier in the ..."
Lucroy emerges as Brewers' top catching prospect
"When the Milwaukee Brewers' brass had a year-end meeting with the media, assistant general manager Gord Ash said something interesting: Jonathan Lucroy, not Angel Salome, was the team's top catching prospect. A third-round pick in the 2007 draft out of Louisiana-Lafayette, Lucroy turned heads last year when he hit .301 with 20 homers between two Class A levels."
Highlighting top Giants prospects for '10
"We break down the top five prospects for each organization for 2010, taking into consideration: games, at-bats, innings and major-league service time. We expect these players to have rookie status remaining heading into next year. According to MLB rules: "A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the major leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a major league club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list)." Note: Statistics are those at each stop in the minors this season and age ..."
Bleacher Report: Strasburg's fantasy value
"Last season, the fantasy baseball world was abuzz over Matt Wieters and the potential impact he could make. Of course, all the hype caused his value on draft day to rise exponentially, costing owners who gambled on him dearly. In 2010, we could see a similar situation developing with phenom Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg, the first overall selection in the 2009 entry draft is already very well known. Many have projected him to be a must start fantasy option right from Opening Day, and while I will look at him closer as the offseason progresses and give a projection for him, his performance in the Arizona Fall League, his first true professional experience, is something that needs to be ..."
NL Predictions, revisited
"OK, so we've got 5 5/6 points for correct AL predictions so far, and we're trying to beat last year's total of 11 1/3. The predictions weren't designed to be 50-50 propositions, so try not to judge the incorrect ones too harshly. Or, just call me a stupid idiot in the comments section below if you like. Come on, National League! Prediction: Diamondbacks: Dan Haren will be a better fantasy pitcher than Brandon Webb What I wrote: This actually isn't such a big surprise, as you could make the argument that Haren was better than Webb in 2008: Haren: 16 W, 3.33 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 206 K Webb: 22 W, 3.30 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 183 K Most people think Webb is the D-Backs' unquestioned ace. He's not, at ..."
Where Did You Go Wrong?
"Fantasy baseball is a cruel game. Each year, over 90% of fantasy owners fail to win the league that is most important to them. That also means that if you didn't win your main league this year, there is a 90% chance that you will meet the same fate next year. But there is good news! You can reduce the odds of failure by trying to figure out where you went wrong this year. If you are going to try to change your luck next year, you need to start by not making the same mistakes a second time. Here are some key questions to ask yourself, when assessing where you went wrong in 2009? 1. Were you too optimistic or too pessimistic in your draft evaluation of prospects and young major ..."
AL predictions, revisited
"Welcome to the second annual "review my preseason predictions column." To refresh your memories, in February I made educated guesses about fantasy stats for a player on every MLB team. The idea was for the predictions to have no better than a 50-50 chance to be correct, with some having longer odds than others. Last year, I got 11 1/3 points out of 30. Yes, I gave myself partial credit and will be doing so again. Let's get on with it. If you have any comments, insults, etc. — and based on the results, you probably do — fire away at the bottom of the page. Next week, we'll look back at the National League predictions, in which I most certainly did NOT predict that David Wright would hit ..."
By the Numbers: Looking for relief in 2010
"We love to complain about our closers, but that is only because we hold them to such high standards. Even great hitters can fail to reach base in three-fifths of their plate appearances and the best pitchers in baseball can be counted on to give up three or more runs in a start with some regularity. But we expect closers to be just about perfect, because often enough, they live up to that expectation, and several of them do it year after year. True ninth-inning guys are rare, which is why, once a team finds its Rivera, Nathan, or even Francisco Cordero, they tend to keep him around in that role for a long time. Maybe that's why it seems more than a little strange when an unfamiliar name ..."
Projection Review - Pitchers
"This week's feature is a review of some of my preseason pitching projections and writeups. A look at the hitters will come next week. Starting Pitching Review Josh Beckett - Red Sox - $24 - SP #9 Projection: 16-6, 3.53 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 176 K in 186 IP 2009 stats: 17-6, 3.86 ERA, 1.192 WHIP, 199 K in 212 1/3 IP Then: Maybe he's not yet a true ace after all. Beckett did finish seventh in the AL in WHIP and eighth in strikeouts, but two problems that plagued him during his poor first season in the AL again crept up: he used his curve less frequently and he had less separation between his fastball and change than he did in 2007. Health was also an issue. He missed the beginning of the season ..."
Year In Review: Starting Pitchers
"Best Player: Zack Greinke The best pitcher in baseball? That's what Sports Illustrated called him and right now it's hard to argue. While some of the veteran aces scuffled in 2009, Greinke emerged from a pack of talented young pitchers to take over top spot. He lead the majors in ERA from a starter and struck out 242 batters. If only he didn't play for the Royals…. Tim Lincecum If Greinke isn't the best pitcher in baseball, then it's probably this guy. He exceeded Greinke's WHIP and strikeout total and fell just short of him in ERA. Like Greinke, he is hampered by a weak offense behind him. He is going to be the consensus number one pitcher in 2010 drafts because of his high ..."
Halpin' Hand: Biggest fantasy flops of '09
"Last week, we named some fantasy MVPs. This week? The guys you hate. The guys who killed you. The guys who, if their names come up at next year's draft, will make you say, "I'll never, EVER pick that %$#@! again." This article is actually more fun for me to write, because I can rant and swear a lot more than usual. The extremely subjective criteria involve is simple: the player at each position who underperformed his average draft position (ADP) to the greatest degree. Complaints, suggestions or insults? Post a comment at the bottom of the page. Catcher: Russell Martin, Dodgers (ADP: 37, First at position) With all due respect to slumping sophomore Geovany Soto, Martin won this one easily. ..."
Year In Review: Outfielders
"Best Players: Carl Crawford He raced out to the stolen bases lead and then didn't have the greatest second half. But, the overall numbers at the end of the year were very strong. After a down year in 2008, he bounced back in every category. After years of being a mid to late first round pick, he slipped to the second round in drafts this year because of one down year. He is a good lesson to fantasy owners that players in their prime who have one down year are likely to bounce back after having an off-season to regroup. Jacoby Ellsbury He led the league in steals, but this is no one-category player. He hit .300 and even chipped in a few home runs. Here's the scary thing about Ellsbury ..."
Full Disclosure: Always lessons to be learned
"Well, that's that. The ups and downs of a 162-game season yielded all you see before you: five respectable finishes, but not a single championship. It happens. If I had to take just one overriding lesson from this season -- and you always learn lessons, whether in victory or defeat -- it'd be this: more hitting, less pitching. I knew it already. I preached it to all of you. But now, I believe it even more. You can always find breakout pitchers if you make even half an effort, but if you don't draft the hitters you need, you might never get them. I could write a whole column on the subject -- already have, probably will again -- but in keeping with the spirit of this column, let's move ..."
Year In Review: Shortstops
"Best Player: Hanley Ramirez He was the most popular number one pick in 2009 drafts and he mostly delivered on expectations. His .342 average was a career high and established him as one of the best pure hitters in baseball. With the fall of Reyes and Rollins, he is now clearly the top fantasy shortstop. If there is any room to complain, it would be that the top pick in the draft didn't reach 30 home runs or steals and didn't reach 110 runs or RBIs. It would be nice to see dominance in multiple categories, but that is really getting too picky. Biggest Surprises: Jason Bartlett He was a late pick in deep formats and started the year on waivers in mixed leagues. He ended up hitting ..."
Dead Weight: Hitters
"Everyone has their favorite fantasy hitters. Now that the 2009 regular season closed up shop, I'd like to look ahead to 2010 to help us all avoid drafting the next Carlos Beltran or Lance Berkman. Catcher I Won't Draft Joe Mauer (MIN) Now that the power has shown up, you will most certainly not be able to poach Mauer next spring. Even Brian McCann will look like a discount compared to Mauer's future ADP. As I will repeatedly say, ad infinitum, don't pay a premium for your catcher. Buy the toolsy outfielder, the power corner infielder, or even the power-heavy middle infielder. Season's like Mauer's don't happen every year, so betting on catching lightning in a bottle like that is unwise. ..."
Halpin' Hand: Fantasy MVPs
"Now that the regular season's over — for those of you not reading this during the Tigers-Twins game, anyway — it's time to hand out the fantasy hardware. We've got MVPs at each position, but they're not traditional MVPs. For example, you knew Albert Pujols would be awesome. If you drafted him, as happy as he might have made you, it was the overachieving later draft picks that really put your team over the top, right? Below are fantasy MVPs at every position, with the extremely subjective criteria being the player who outperformed his average draft position (ADP) to the greatest degree. Complaints, suggestions or insults? Post a comment at the bottom of the page. If you remember, during ..."
A little off base: Looking ahead to '10
"It's always a depressing day when you realize yet another baseball season's come to a close. For those of you who are fans of the remaining eight teams (after the Tigers/Twins game on Tuesday, of course), congrats. For the rest of us, though, these are sad times. Now it's time to review what went on this past season and look ahead to all the glorious days ahead next April! And yes, I'm already looking ahead. Cubs fans like myself have been doing that this time of year our entire lives. As always, there were some unbelievable performances, some disappointing ones and some that have us waiting for more. That's what we'll concentrate on here, since next season's already the more important one ..."
Year In Review: First Basemen
"This position gave us some of the best power hitters in baseball and was a key to many fantasy league champions. However, it also produced its share of busts and left many teams severely lacking in home runs and RBIs. Best Player: Albert Pujols He was not only the best first baseman, he was the 2009 Fantasy MVP. He got off to a hot start and then maintained a strong level of production all year. He is widely considered the best pure hitter in baseball and he currently doesn't have any injury problems. While some owners will choose to think outside the box, he will be the top pick in most fantasy drafts next year. If you had the guts to take him number one in 2009, great job! ..."
Right and Wrong in 2009
"This week, for the final column of 2009, a look back at what Rick and I did right and what we did wrong in the LABR and Tout leagues in the hope of learning something for 2010. So I can end on a higher note, I will start with the five big mistakes or "did wrongs" of the year. Josh Hamilton: It is no secret that Rick and I invest in top talent and are willing to spend big to get it. At first blush, Hamilton, a supremely talented hitter in a strong lineup and a great hitter's park seemed like a sure thing. He wasn't. I often say that you will not win leagues with your big money picks, but you can surely lose them. Hamilton is 50% of the reason Rick and I are not in the running in Tout. What ..."
Hot/Cold 2009 Finale: A Look Toward 2010
"Welcome back to the Hot/Cold, which best describes your feelings about the end of the regular season and especially the end of the road for this column in 2009. Like I hinted last week, today is practically graduation day and school's out for the winter, which makes it a good time to crack open the Dom Perignon as we make a toast to the 2009 season and to the Dodgers, who finally did the business of wrapping up the NL West pennant (and home field advantage in the NL playoffs). For those of us who are looking far ahead to better days from a disappointing fantasy baseball season (like yours truly, oddly enough), we'll look forward to 2010. We'll look at a few select players who have ..."
Top 100 hitter keepers for 2010
"Let's go back just three years, shall we, to this very date in 2006. You're looking at your team and deciding your final keeper slot. Well, you have Cecil's boy, Prince Fielder. He had a good year for you, with 28 homers, 84 RBIs and a .271 average. But wow, even though he's a designated hitter, Travis Hafner, your .308-42 homer-117 RBI stud, is the no-brainer, right? Right? And the rest is history. If you choose Fielder, you'd get early-round production from one of your keepers, just as you expect. If you choose Hafner, you'd get a .254 average and just 44 homers in the next three seasons combined. Keeper decisions can have an impact on your team for years to come. So choose wisely. ..."
Heading for Home(r)
"For those keeping score at home – and at this late stage of the season, I'll be impressed if you're simply paying attention, let alone keeping score – this is the 27th and final edition of Waiver Wired for 2009. It has been a glorious journey from April all the way to the beginning of October, but as a wiser man than myself once said, all great journeys, much like a ride on your Uncle Lawrence's pet mule, must eventually come to an end. I'll be handing out some Waiver Wired awards a little further down, but first, let's dive into some suggested options for the final days of the 2009 campaign: MIXED LEAGUE HITTERS Jose Bautista, 3B/OF, TOR (Yahoo: 2 percent owned; ESPN: 2 percent) Hello, ..."
Pen Names: Sept. 30, 2009
"Denver, CO: Franklin Morales had a nice little run there, good enough in fact to prompt manager Jim Tracy to suggest that the kid has a bright future as a closer. While left handed closers are something of an anomaly, Morales did thrive in the role for a short while and his stuff suggests he's fairly well suited for the role, just not now; not as long as Huston Street is back and healthy. Street is back, and throwing bullets for a Rockies team in the thick of the playoff hunt. This means good things for Street owners, as he'll likely be used as often as his arm can handle in the few remaining days of the regular season. In the Rockies most recent series versus St. Louis, Street notched ..."
Rivera, Nathan lead '10 relief rankings
"Let's get this right out of the way: I generally don't protect relief pitchers in keeper leagues. Of course there are situations in which I would, like the 16-team, 12-keeper league I've been in forever. If I don't keep Brian Wilson in that league, he'll be one of the first picks in the draft and I'll be laughed at. Most closers are kept. But in most leagues, you get to protect five or fewer players, I just don't consider even the best relief pitchers to be strong, viable options. That doesn't mean closers aren't valuable to the cause. It's tough to win a fantasy league without proper saves, and we commend Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Broxton and the many others who have supplied ..."
High Five For Buchholz
"Clay Buchholz pitched his way into the Red Sox's postseason rotation by going 7-3 with a 3.21 ERA through 14 starts, but turned in a disastrous outing Tuesday against the Blue Jays. Buchholz served up a career-high five homers after allowing a total of seven long balls through his first 84 innings this year, coughing up seven runs as his ERA rose nearly 20 percent. Two of those homers came off the bat of Adam Lind, who chased Buchholz from the game and later took reliever Takashi Saito deep for his third blast of the night. Lind is fifth in the league with a .932 OPS, hitting .305 with 35 homers, 46 doubles, and 114 RBIs to show that his .318/.380/.509 line in the minors was no fluke ..."
The Lower Half
"Welcome to the season's final edition of The Lower Half. In addition to possibly picking up the players below, here's something to remember about your starting pitchers in daily transaction leagues: if they start anytime after Tuesday, you should waive them after they pitch, because they're not pitching again. This week, The Lower Half reviews 10 players owned in less than half of FOXSports.com leagues, but who haven't been included in this space for the past month. We usually include nine, but you deserve a bonus. Pickups are advised if you've got the room on your roster. (Note: All stats are through Sunday's games.) Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Blue Jays (28.1 percent owned) When Encarnacion ..."
Waiver Wire Roundup: Sep. 28, 2009
"There are seven days of fantasy-ing left until we seamheads are all left to watch games that have no bearing whatsoever on our carefully constructed rosters of toolsy dudes, live arms, and hot bats. I know that I speak for many when I say that there is about to be a gaping hole in my life where fantasy baseball used to be. Sadly, its football and basketball variations will not suffice. Activity in keeper leagues simply is not the same as when there are actual games being played. So before we all begin trying to invent a new system to value players and pinpoint who will rebound and who is destined for a crash, there is the formality of seeing this fantasy season to an end. The key in ..."
Morning Baseball Update: Rays' Howell shut down
"The Twins and Tigers start a four-game series today in Detroit, with the Tigers ahead of the Twins by two games. Who else sees a 12-for-18, four-homer effort coming from Joe Mauer? I think I'd walk him every time if I was the Tigers. Who's off: Mariners, A's, Cubs, Brewers, Reds, Cardinals, Padres, Rockies, Giants, Diamondbacks First pitch: The Dodgers and Pirates get the NL day off to an early start at 12:35 p.m. ET, while we've got a trio of AL games at 7:05. Here's the full schedule. Pitcher to start: Since we last left you with a 93-90 record: * Wade Davis was good enough on Wednesday. * On Thursday, Jason Hammel got the job done, while Clay Buchholz continued to prove that he ..."
Jurrjens a strong No. 3 in 2010
"The Atlanta Braves continue to play the best baseball in the big leagues, winning Monday for the 15th time in 17 games, and if you're looking for a reason why, look no further than the starting pitching, which ranks first in baseball with a 3.51 ERA. Javier Vazquez is seventh on ESPN's Player Rater, and third among starting pitchers. Derek Lowe has matched Vazquez with 15 wins. Tommy Hanson could be on his way to winning rookie of the year honors, and Tim Hudson is back after Tommy John surgery and sporting a 3.56 ERA. And none of these guys has the best ERA in the rotation. Jair Jurrjens tossed seven shutout innings against the Florida Marlins on Monday, earning his 14th win and lowering ..."
By the Numbers: The Morales of the story
"Comeback players and unsung heroes -- they can turn a Fantasy season from sour to sweet like no one else. When you got "stuck" with Derrek Lee or Jason Kubel on Draft Day, you were probably thinking, "maybe this isn't going to be my year after all." Their performances, along with those of other pleasant surprises, have turned out to be critical to many a Fantasy success. This is the first of two columns that highlight those players who have made 2009 a surprisingly good year for many owners. This time around, we are profiling eight hitters who have performed beyond just about everybody's expectations. We will dig through their statistics, looking for clues to their unforeseen success. Then ..."
Re-Encarnated
"Perhaps it's the fact that I root for a team that has been maddeningly close but ultimately not that close to threatening for a Wild Card berth (the Braves), or simply because there's only one compelling playoff race remaining in the waning days of September (Tigers-Twins), but for whatever reason, the latter part of this season has dragged on like an elderly dog who has lost use of his hindquarters. However, those of us who still have a modicum of pride remaining are going to scratch, claw and drag our mangled rear legs in hopes of sniffing out every single point possible before the season is done. Let's get to it: MIXED LEAGUE Octavio Dotel, RP, CWS (Yahoo: 6 percent owned; ESPN: 5 ..."
Treasure Hunting: Sep. 24, 2009
"At this point in the season you're either in a race or in a keeper league pining for the start of the 2010 season. In the latter case, you're probably looking at who to carry forward with next season. Let's take a look at some common keeper questions that teams will be facing next season. Should I carry forward a rookie from 2009 who was highly touted but has done nothing so far? Maybe one of the biggest mistakes fantasy players make is overrating the scouting reports. Every year there are rookies who under perform and every year people (including yours truly) get suckered in. Let's face facts here. For every Evan Longoria rookie season there is a Matt Wieters and a David Price. ..."
Lidge blows another save
"As the end of the 2009 regular season draws near, many fantasy owners -- especially those in keeper leagues -- are already looking ahead to 2010. They're scanning the waiver wire looking for bargains and crunching the salary numbers in their heads, attempting to narrow down the list of players they'd like to hang on to for next season. To them, may we offer a word of advice: Leave the pitchers off your list. To understand why, you need look no further than Brad Lidge of the Philadelphia Phillies. He was perfect in 2008, saving 41 games in 41 attempts, registering a 1.95 ERA and holding opponents to a paltry .198 batting average. So why wouldn't you want to hold on to this projected ..."
By the Numbers: What went wrong in '09
"Whether you are considering keeper decisions or are just ready for an end-of-season retrospective, now is the time to take a closer look at some of this season's unexpected performances. This week, our focus will be on the unpleasant surprises of 2009 -- the players whom we thought would be among Fantasy's best but wound up doing little to distinguish themselves from the pack. We will start with the hitters in this column and will return with a sample of underperforming pitchers later in the week. The eight batters featured here were all among the best at their respective positions in 2008, and each showed every sign of repeating their strong performances in 2009. We will scour each ..."
Pen Names: Sept. 23, 2009
"Denver, CO: Rockies reliever and one time super prospect Franklin Morales took the reigns for an injured Huston Street on September 4, and subsequently went on to earn a save in his next six games. He hasn't registered one since, and has had the misfortune of registering a couple of outings (on back to back nights no less). Overall, Morales has been something of a revelation, to which his 2.16, 6 saves, and 11K/9 all attest. With a 1.56 September WHIP, not everything is coming up roses, but he should continue to see save chances until Street is back to full health. The question is when will that be? All indications are that Street will rejoin the team soon, possibly as soon as this ..."
Webb Finished in Arizona?
"Last week various reports surfaced that the Diamondbacks don't plan to exercise the $8.5 million option on Brandon Webb for 2010 and would instead attempt to work out a new, incentive-laden deal for the injured right-hander. Those plans hit a major snag Tuesday when Webb said that he's not willing to take a discount to remain in Arizona "if it comes down to that and they ask me to do something like that." While paying $8.5 million for Webb next season is a huge risk for the Diamondbacks given that he hasn't pitched since Opening Day thanks to a shoulder injury, it doesn't make much sense for him to accept a below-market deal when big-payroll teams like the Yankees and Red Sox would ..."
By the Numbers: What went wrong in '09
"Whether you are considering keeper decisions or are just ready for an end-of-season retrospective, now is the time to take a closer look at some of this season's unexpected performances. This week, our focus will be on the unpleasant surprises of 2009 -- the players whom we thought would be among Fantasy's best but wound up doing little to distinguish themselves from the pack. We will start with the hitters in this column and will return with a sample of underperforming pitchers later in the week. The eight batters featured here were all among the best at their respective positions in 2008, and each showed every sign of repeating their strong performances in 2009. We will scour each ..."
Pitching Forecaster: A state of Fantasy flux
"We get asked this a lot: What criteria do you use to determine the Fantasy starting status of a pitcher from week to week? At no time is that more important than the crucial final weeks of the Head-to-Head playoffs. You have to have a starting rotation built to win, preferably one loaded with extra starts. How in the world am I getting beat by Robinson Tejeda this week? They ask. They want to know the magic formula for guessing right on the marginal pitchers. Well, we don't have one. But we do have a way to limit your risk, perhaps. 1. Look at a pitcher's past three starts Pitchers tend to be streaky just like hitters, but their streaks are a lot harder to spot, especially since they ..."
By the Numbers: BABIPs gone batty
"Over the course of the season, we have used this space to track BABIP trends to see what they could tell us about some of the more surprising stats that have surfaced in Fantasy. In particular, suspicious-looking batting averages have come under our scrutiny, as fluctuations in BABIP can tell us whether we can expect those figures to head up or down. As our focus has often shifted towards players whose stats have been skewed by unexpected starts, such as Dexter Fowler's hot April or Ryan Ludwick's May swoon, we have given short shrift to players with fluky and bizarre performances in the second half. In this, the last of our weekly BABIP Flukes analyses for the year, we aim to correct ..."
Hidden fantasy baseball hurlers
"Looking for pitching help? These under-the-radar hurlers are demonstrating good stuff and should be on all fantasy rosters. RHP Brad Penny, Red Sox - An excellent value so far at $5 million for the season, Penny has enjoyed a resurgent season in Beantown. He credits the shoulder program he started earlier this year for helping him return to his 2007 form. In one of his last starts, Penny was reaching 97 mph as late as the sixth inning. His confidence is back. Don't be put off by his 4.71 ERA; that is inflated by an 8.66 April ERA. Since the calendar flipped to May, his ERA is 3.79, and he is striking out 6.63 batters per nine. His WHIP has also dropped in each month this season (1.27 WHIP ..."
By the Numbers: Some owners get A's, some don't
"Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson may have spent a year in the minors together, started the year as rookies in the Oakland rotation together, and are equipped with matching 5-7 records. Yes, Fantasy owners do find these twin rookies adorable, but they haven't always treated them the same. Cahill spent opening day on a CBSSports.com Fantasy roster in 38 percent of leagues, while Anderson got the call in only 26 percent of our leagues. It has taken more than half the season for Anderson to approach Cahill's Fantasy popularity, even though he is dominating Cahill in strikeout, walk and home run ratios. That hasn't translated into more wins or a lower ERA because of some bad luck. Anderson has ..."
Pitching Forecaster: Planning for the short week
"The most loathed humans in the world are car sales people, lawyers and the local weather person -- in any particular order. The first two want your money, the latter merely asks you to lend your ear and have some faith in them, despite some past miscalculations. If more ordinary people played Fantasy, CBSSports.com player updaters would be among those above. Heck, they might be anyway, especially this Pitching Forecaster. "Why isn't so-and-so getting two starts this week?" "What the heck? Why didn't they tell me Ryan Dempster broke his toe and is going on the DL instead of getting two starts?!" Wah, wah, wah. Cry us a break. You might even be so turned off, you resort to your own ..."
For Better, For Worse: The Fans Got It Right
"The All-Star Game was a big deal for me when I was a kid. As a fan of a bad team, I didn't have much to look forward to and the game was a real treat in the middle of the summer. The stars were larger than life. In a literal sense, however, they were smaller: Johnny Bench, Mike Schmidt and Eddie Murray look like shrimps next to Joe Mauer, Alex Rodriguez and Ryan Howard. Bigger is not necessarily better. One thing that is better about contemporary All-Star games is the fan voting. The fans have selected the starting lineups for the past 40 All-Star Games. Back in the 1970s and 1980s the fans didn't do such a good job. Big names won out over merit. The ballots might as well have been ..."
New fantasy baseball heights for these skyscraping pitchers?
"RHP Luke Hochevar, Royals - The 6-foot-5 three-time draftee (tops overall in 2006) recorded a 2.94 June ERA with a .174 opponents' clip. He's cutting more grass: Hochevar's combined 39.8 percent minor league grounder rate in '07 became 68.6 percent at Class AAA Omaha in '08 and 62.9 percent there in '09. Hochevar's favorable June schedule has some overestimating his progress. Instigating contact won't help his 4.57 MLB K's per nine innings (3.68 this year) or his fortunate .244 BABIP. That's a key to his success, because he still isn't keeping his free passes (3.33 per nine) at bay. Be careful. LHP Andrew Miller, Marlins - Hochevar's 2006 classmate can force more whiffs but has shaky ..."
Breakout by Jake? Not so fast
"Lou Piniella seems to be playing a little game of cat and mouse with Jake Fox. When the Cubs called up the 26 year-old, who had been destroying Triple-A pitching, owners went berserk and instantly added him to one-third of the leagues on CBSSports.com. Then Sweet Lou sat him, then sat him some more, and then the front office sent him packing back to Triple-A. In his second stint with the Cubbies, Piniella has finally decided to give Fox and his owners a break with an extended tryout at third base (for Fox, that is, but not his owners -- the latter would be weird). Things have gone smashingly well, so owners are making a second run on Fox, resurrecting his status as one of the National ..."
Pitching Forecaster: Waking the sleeping Giants
"We might have not gotten the message to you. It could have been in a Fantasy Take or perhaps the San Francisco Giants Fantasy outlook. But we saw them surprising people this season. When asked which team could pull a Tampa Bay Rays, the answer here was San Francisco. After all, pitching wins. And Tim Lincecum is not a bad start to a staff. Heck, he might be the best pitcher in baseball -- and Fantasy -- now and the rest of the way. We were not bold enough to predict the Giants would pitch so well to overcome a weak offense to be leading the NL wild card race at the All-Star break. That is where they are headed, and they are doing it with a new No. 5 starter -- Ryan Sadowski -- that never ..."
Sell high on these fantasy baseball commodities
"The season is more than two and a half months old; these players are enjoying All-Star-caliber seasons. They've helped you already; now it's time to capitalize on their inflated value and sell high. C Joe Mauer, Twins - He's arguably the most valuable player at his position. He is hitting .407 through 172 at-bats. He has already set a career high with 14 homers and is almost halfway to a career high in RBIs despite missing the first month. His BABIP is a ridiculous .412. No one has hit over .400 for an entire season since Ted Williams in 1941. Mauer is bound to hit a slump sometime. An astronomical 26.9 percent of his flyballs are leaving the park, too. 3B Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks - His ..."
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