Dwight Evans or Jim Rice – who was more valuable?

[bagwell368]

Most people knee jerk an answer of Jim Rice. But its not so, and I am going to prove why not.

Perception. Rice came up with Fred Lynn and formed one of the most famous duos in the history of the sport – the “gold dust twins”, and they captured the imagination of fans around the country, not just Boston. Three of Rice’s best five seasons came in his first 5 years. He was established as a slugger very young. In fact, his last great year came when he was but 26 years old.

Evans came up a few years earlier, a spotty hitter but great fielding RF (in the most difficult RF in all of baseball). He was seen as a nice complimentary piece, and not much more. The first person to really notice him was Sparky Anderson in 1975. He had heard all about Yaz, Tiant, Lynn, but Evans was the most impressive to Sparky with his play in the ’75 WS. Evans didn’t have his best year until his 8th full year.

With the bat:

Career:

JRice OPS+ 128; 1384 RC in 09058 PA - .1528 RC/PA
Evans OPS+ 127; 1612 RC in 10569 PA - .1525 RC/PA

In terms of rate stats, we have to call it even or a slight edge for Rice

In terms of career value, a player with almost the same rate stats that has 1511 PA more (about 2.3 years more) of a career is more valuable as a hitter – period.

Evans BtRns 362.4 BtWin 35.5 OWP .646
JRice BtRns 294.7 BtWin 28.9 OWP .627

Wow! More solid of a win then I expected here.

Peak:

Here is a list of the best 5 RC (runs created) seasons of each player, any order:

Evans - 134, 134, 132, 112, 104 = 616
JRice – 147, 138, 136, 115, 113 = 649

Sadly for Evans, one of his best years looked to be the strike year – 1980. If you EQ for games missed his 95 RC of that year go to 126, and his 104 drops off the list, and then he is only 11 RC back in this 5 year comparison.

In fact with 1980 intact, the RS *probably* would have won the Division, and Evans might have won the MVP. He also might have made it to 400 HR which would helped his HOF cause.

Average Years:

Next 9 years RC:

Evans – 100, 100, 95, 85, 79, 74, 71, 69, 66 = 739
JRice – 99, 92, 88, 83, 83, 81, 64, 63, 55 = 708

31 runs over 9 years, not a big edge for Evans, but enough to erase Rice’s advantage in the best 5 year match up.

So, you ask if Evans is so great why does Rice have bigger BA, RBI’s etc?

Batting order:

Evans: ---- Rice:

1st – 160 -- 003
2nd – 565 -- 003
3rd – 211 -- 882
4th – 152 -- 677
5th – 322 -- 263
6th – 429 -- 161
7th – 333 -- 088
8th – 297 -- 006
9th – 137 – 006

Evans batted in places where he could score more runs (due to his OBP), but also in places where RBI’s are harder to get (only 26.3% at 3-4-5 whereas Rice had 87.2% of his games at 3-4-5).

Another issue is that Evans appeared lower overall in the order – costing about 30 PA’s in a typical 155 game season, which are more runs and RBI’s lost.

Base running:

On startling thing about Rice most people don’t talk about. His GDIP. His is 5th all time at 315, but his percentage of GDIP is the 2nd highest I could find among players with over 5000 career PA. Ernie Lombardi a fine hitting and lead footed catcher is the only one with a worse GDIP percentage. Lombardi is hailed by many as the slowest player of all time.

Neither stole a lot – Evans more SB’s but at a lesser rate then Rice. Still with 88 less career GDIP’s in 1511 more PA’s, and my memory which says Evans was a bit faster and paid more attention on base then Rice, a small advantage must accrue to Evans. I’d guesstimate 1.5 runs per season, but I’m ready to change my mind.

OK, so what, splitting hairs…?? No…

Defense.

8 GG’s for Evans – 0 for Rice;

12% of Evans’s games at DH (not regularly until age 37)
34.4% of Rice’s games at DH, regularly starting in ’75 at age 22.

In the core 14 years of Evans career which we have been using to compare with Rice, he saved about 120 runs with his glove – or an average of 8.5 runs per season.

Rice saved 4 runs in LF in his entire career – or .285 runs per year.

Summary:

Rice has a lead in 5 year peak batting, which could be mitigated if you give Evans his missing games of 1980, or at least bias the result to take account of it. There is also the extra AB’s Rice accrued during many of these years when Evans was hitting 6th or 7th.

Over the entire career the hitting stats are vastly similar with Evans holding the advantage of more playing time at the same equal level making him more valuable.

Then there is possible advantage Evans enjoys as a base runner.

Finally – defense, Evans is one of the 6 greatest RF since WW II along with Clemente and Kaline. Take those RC numbers and add 8.5 to them, and viola! It’s no longer close. Evans was a better player for a longer period then Rice. He also tops Rice in Peak seasons as well.

And for all the old time guys that will rail about stat geeks. I saw those guys – some years well over 100 games a seasons. I thought through 1979 that Rice and Lynn would end up in the HOF. But by 1980-81 I was praying that Rice would just strike out w/ men on base and not hit into another friggin DP.

I think Rice will get in this year, more on reputation then reality, with a backlash push from HGH/steroids. Evans didn’t get any support when he came up, and he fell off the ballot.

I just looked them up in James’s Abstract:

JRice 27th all time LF w/ 282 career Win Shares and 21.86 per 162
Evans 22nd all time RF w/ 347 career Win Shares and 21.57 per 162

I do not think Dwight Evans belongs in the HOF, and I sure as hell know Rice does not.

[Old Sweater]

I'd have to go with the Strong Arm over the Strong Man in this poll.

Dwight Evans was my favorite of the trio and had one heck of an arm.

Some so called experts have Rice as one of the most overrated players of a couple or so decades. Should he get into the HOF? Hard to say.....I'd sure cast him a vote compared to some of the players that the Veterans Committee has chosen. That goes for Dewey also.

[bagwell368]

Oh yeah, sort of lost this:

Anyhow like everyone else I was a Rice and Lynn fan. In fact Lynn in '79 is one of the best performances I ever saw. Rice in '78 was nearly as good.

But when Evans emerged in '80 his AB's were a thing of disciplined beauty. As Lynn left, and Rice became a myopic, GDIP overpaid has been, Evans became the offensive heart of the team along with the emerging Boggs. Rice threw in a couple of pretty good years in the 80's, two more in replacement of two of his dog years and he's been in the HOF for 10 years.

When Dewey left for Baltimore I hoped he had enough in him to get to 400 HR's, but he was out of gas.

I know this, take the 3 of them in their best year, and you'd have trouble finding 3 teammates that had a better trio of seasons.

[baseball4ever]

Originally Posted by bagwell368

Oh yeah, sort of lost this:

Anyhow like everyone else I was a Rice and Lynn fan. In fact Lynn in '79 is one of the best performances I ever saw. Rice in '78 was nearly as good.

But when Evans emerged in '80 his AB's were a thing of disciplined beauty. As Lynn left, and Rice became a myopic, GDIP overpaid has been, Evans became the offensive heart of the team along with the emerging Boggs. Rice threw in a couple of pretty good years in the 80's, two more in replacement of two of his dog years and he's been in the HOF for 10 years.

When Dewey left for Baltimore I hoped he had enough in him to get to 400 HR's, but he was out of gas.

I know this, take the 3 of them in their best year, and you'd have trouble finding 3 teammates that had a better trio of seasons.

Don't forget Lynn left for b'more as well. In fact he holds the desiction of being the only A.L. player to hit a grand-slam in the all-star game (back in 1983 I think) Lynn's anly problem was that he would smash into walls catching a fly ball......in April. Sure enough he would be on the D.L. by June. That may have been in his later years though.

[bagwell368]

Originally Posted by baseball4ever

Don't forget Lynn left for b'more as well. In fact he holds the desiction of being the only A.L. player to hit a grand-slam in the all-star game (back in 1983 I think) Lynn's anly problem was that he would smash into walls catching a fly ball......in April. Sure enough he would be on the D.L. by June. That may have been in his later years though.

Nope, he was the first one to hit a GS in an AS game, but its been done since.

He went to LAA for 4, Bal for 3.5, Det for 1.5, and SD for the end.

He did two things that totally ruined his shot at the HOF.

#1 after '79 when he pumped up 15 lbs and had a year just about any HOF would be proud to claim. He said he wanted to lighten up and steal more bases. He went from 2 to 12 in SB, and never again had a season like '79 again

#2 he left Boston, and never hit over .299 again after doing it 5 times in Boston.

Lynn was also notorious for ducking tough lefties with phantom injuries of the day.

[Bargnani]

Rice had a higher peak than Evans, although not as much higher as people think.

Evans had the more valuable career; who had the more valuable peak is somewhat debatable.

Had Rice not had the eye problems that shortened his career, I believe that his numbers would have been such that no one would have questioned his induction, 6-4-3 DPs and all. Rice didn't make it to 500 HRs (in fact, he didn't make it to 400 HRs) after a fast start. His BA dropped under .300 lifetime at the end. I wonder if he'd get a little more respect if he made it to 400 with his .300 BA intact.

[bagwell368]

Originally Posted by Bargnani

Rice had a higher peak than Evans, although not as much higher as people think.

Evans had the more valuable career; who had the more valuable peak is somewhat debatable.

Had Rice not had the eye problems that shortened his career, I believe that his numbers would have been such that no one would have questioned his induction, 6-4-3 DPs and all. Rice didn't make it to 500 HRs (in fact, he didn't make it to 400 HRs) after a fast start. His BA dropped under .300 lifetime at the end. I wonder if he'd get a little more respect if he made it to 400 with his .300 BA intact.

Yes, that would have done it. 420 HR, .302 BA, in for a long time.

Evans would have needed 425 HR+ because his BA was low and not many cared about OBP when he was first eligible.

[bagwell368]

Prospectus blows away Rice's candidacy for the HOF:

In evaluating the Hall of Fame candidacies of Rickey Henderson and Tim Raines recently, I made a point of avoiding any discussion of Jim Rice for a simple reason: his candidacy doesn't merit being mentioned in the same breath. That's not to say that Rice wasn't an excellent ballplayer, but his relatively short career and the context surrounding it simply leave his case wanting. The BBWAA clearly feels otherwise, as Rice polled 72.2 percent of the vote last year, the ninth straight year he's received above 50 percent. Still, he fell 16 votes shy in his second-to-last year on the ballot. With his candidacy in its final year and surrounded by such controversy, we'll take a closer look at his case.

If you're joining us late, please read this year's introduction to the JAWS system and the changes in the underlying WARP metric since last year's evaluation.


-------------------- H HR RBI AVG OBP SLG AS MVP GG HOFS HOFM Bal 2008%
Jim Rice ---------- 2452 382 1451 .298 .352 .502 7 1 0 42.9 147.0 14 72.20
Rickey Henderson 3055 297 1115 .279 .401 .419 10 1 1 52.6 183.5 0 ---
Tim Raines ------- 2605 170 980 .294 .385 .425 7 0 0 6.8 90.0 1 24.30

--------------- EqA BRAR BRAA FRAA Career Peak JAWS

Rice .293 627 359 -41 55.1 39.6 47.4
Henderson .316 1285 906 194 155.7 74.9 115.3
Raines .309 905 608 8 94.3 54.9 74.6

Avg HOF LF .303 743 473 2 76.8 48.2 62.5

HOFS & HOFM: Bill James' Hall of Fame Shares and Monitor.
Bal: How many years the player has appeared on the ballot.
2008%: The player's share of the vote in 2008.

Jim Rice was Boston's first pick in the 1971 draft, the 15th pick overall, passed over in favor of such luminaries as Danny Goodwin, Jay Franklin, Condredge Holloway, and Tom Veryzer. Not that the first round was entirely a bust, as Frank Tanana was taken just two picks ahead of Rice by the Angels, and Rick Rhoden was chosen five picks behind him by the Dodgers. Though he hit just .256/.311/.408 as an 18-year-old in the New York-Penn League, Rice climbed quickly through the Red Sox system, reaching Triple-A Pawtucket in late 1973 and Boston in late 1974 after a season at Pawtucket in which he won the International League Triple Crown and would earn The Sporting News Minor League Player of the Year honors. He made his major league debut on August 19, and hit .269/.307/.373 in 24 games, mainly as a DH and pinch-hitter.

Just over two weeks later, fellow rookie Fred Lynn would debut as well. The following year the two players would help Boston win their first pennant since 1967, with Lynn winning both Rookie of the Year and MVP honors, a then-unprecedented feat; for the year, Lynn hit .331/.401/.566 with 21 homers, a season worth 8.3 WARP, using Clay Davenport's revised replacement level. Rice finished second in the Rookie of the Year balloting and third in MVP on the strength of a .309/.350/.491 line with 22 homers, but his season was only worth 4.1 WARP due to his lesser defensive value and much lower OBP and SLG numbers. Already he was overrated.

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[I Stole Home]

Ric was a great player

[bagwell368]

Originally Posted by I Stole Home

Ric was a great player

Great? OK, maybe. But not HOF great. No sir.