Hiroki Kuroda vs. Johan Santana

[Twinke Masta]

I think Hiroki Kuroda is better than Johan Santana, don't you?

[carson005]

But Santana had a 3.87 tRA* last year so its all good.

[Gigantes4Life]

Just look at the rapid decline Johan is on:
http://www.statcorner.com/pitcherSP....=2008&leag=N_L

[CY24]

Gigantes 4 Life was definitely that 1 vote for Kuroda. Johan by a long shot. It is times like these when you have to re-evaluate those saber-metric stats, because they are not always right. JOHAN!!

[C1Bman88]

Originally Posted by CY24

Gigantes 4 Life was definitely that 1 vote for Kuroda. Johan by a long shot. It is times like these when you have to re-evaluate those saber-metric stats, because they are not always right. JOHAN!!

On average, yes, Johan has been the better pitcher.

But in 2008 Kuroda was superior.

BTW, what makes you so sure that Johan was better this year? Because of his shiny, shiny ERA and WHIP? The two things pitchers have very little control over?

[Twinke Masta]

how about the fact that 90% of the time he pitched, no matter what the hitters were, he never gave up more than 2 runs?

[C1Bman88]

Originally Posted by Twinke Masta

how about the fact that 90% of the time he pitched, no matter what the hitters were, he never gave up more than 2 runs?

How about the fact that it was actually due to luck and good defense?

[m26555]

This is just more proof that sabermetrics are getting out of control and are RUINING the game of baseball. If you're seriously telling me that you'd rather have Hiroki Kuroda on your staff than Johan Santana based on ****ing tRA, then you are simply a stat geek that knows absolutely NOTHING about the game of baseball...

[Gigantes4Life]

No one's saying they'd rather have Kuroda. It just implies that Kuroda was better than Johan in 2008.

[m26555]

Originally Posted by Gigantes4Life

No one's saying they'd rather have Kuroda. It just implies that Kuroda was better than Johan in 2008.

Well the question is phrased as a "who would you rather have" poll, but Johan was better than Kuroda in 2008 anyway so that's a moot point...

[C1Bman88]

Originally Posted by m26555

Well the question is phrased as a "who would you rather have" poll, but Johan was better than Kuroda in 2008 anyway so that's a moot point...

No; Kuroda was better in 2008.

[Twinke Masta]

I am not going to trust a stat that says Kuroda is better than Santana. That's like some random stat that says a Lamborghini is BETTER than a Civic around a track.

[CY24]

Come on. Give it Up. Johan was FAR superior.

[Gigantes4Life]

Originally Posted by Twinke Masta

I am not going to trust a stat that says Kuroda is better than Santana. That's like some random stat that says a Lamborghini is BETTER than a Civic around a track.

You suck at metaphors.

[C1Bman88]

Originally Posted by CY24

Come on. Give it Up. Johan was FAR superior.

Johan's tRA+ was 121; Kuroda's was 124. The only way Johan was a more effective pitcher was that he pitched more innings. In terms of actual effectiveness based on playing time, Kuroda was better. Not by a ton- but he was the superior pitcher.

Johan's been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the past couple of years, but he wasn't that great this year. He was really good, yeah, but nowhere close to what he's done in years past. Kuroda was 17th best, Johan was 23rd. In 2007 he was 15th. In 2006, he was 3rd.

If you don't trust tRA, then look at FIP (which is much less complicated). Johan's FIP this year? 3.51. That alone tells you that he was remarkably lucky in 2008.

When two defense-independent metrics correlate to tell you a pitcher wasn't as great as he is perceived to be; that means they're on to something that simple stats won't tell you.