"When it was reported that Ryan Braun tested positive for a banned substance, the news threw a wrench into the early draft plans of Fantasy owners. Of course, given that the news was reported in December, and not in March, we have plenty of time to figure out a strategy for targeting Braun in our upcoming drafts.
This week's Projections Snapshot puts Braun and his Fantasy draft prospects under the microscope, making this week's installment a little different than usual. Instead of picking a cluster of similar players at a position and flushing out their differences, this week's analysis asks the question of when to draft a player who is almost certain to miss a large chunk of the season. Not only will we look at and dissect the projections for Braun and three other outfielders, but we will also devise a way to determine how comparable they will be on draft day given Braun's unusual circumstances.
If 2012 were going to be a normal year for Braun, we would expect him to be one of the three most productive outfielders in Fantasy. With the strong likelihood that he will serve a 50-game suspension, he will no longer be drafted among the elite, but how far should he drop?
Answering that question starts with projecting Braun's overall value, but it doesn't end there. Owners will need a fill-in for the roughly eight weeks that Braun will likely be out, and that replacement will come from the late rounds of the draft or from waivers. Of course, your actual No. 1 OF won't come from those ranks, but ultimately, you'll be filling a roster spot that would have belonged to Braun with a replacement-level player. So if you're going to pass on Braun altogether, you will need a player who will equal the production of Braun plus his eight-week stand-in. "