There isn't much for which we're taking credit from the spring prediction season. That pick of the Astros only to be one game worse than last year? Not looking so good.

But last night's starter, J.A. Happ, falls into the "don't say you weren't warned" category.

Happ built his 3.75 ERA with the Astros last year on the foundation of a 4.4 BB/9 rate and a 7.6 K/9 rate and what appears from record and ERA (3-9, 5.33) to be a severe regression year features 4.4 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9, almost identical.

With a similar home run rate, the big difference comes in the batting average and specifically batting average on balls in play.