If you’re hoping to judge the top quarterbacks in this year’s NFL draft by their arm strength this weekend, prepare to be disappointed.

Continuing a recent trend, most of the prime passing prospects appear likely to pass on throwing instead at the scouting combine that begins Wednesday at Indianapolis’ Lucas Oil Stadium with the arrival of the first wave of the 335 players invited.

Louisville’s Teddy Bridgewater, Johnny Manziel of Texas A&M and Central Florida’s late-rising Blake Bortles are widely considered the top three quarterbacks available this year, but only Bortles has confirmed he will throw in Indianapolis when that position holds its on-field workouts Sunday.

Manziel is a definite “no” (he will wait for his own personal pro day in Texas in late March), and Bridgewater refuses to say if he will throw here — a sign to many NFL talent evaluators he will join Manziel in sitting out.

The hesitancy to throw at the combine even extends to the second tier of passing prospects this year, as both Fresno State’s Derek Carr and A.J. McCarron have hinted they will wait until personal or school pro days instead.

What’s going on here?

According to Robert Griffin III, who didn’t throw at the 2012 combine but still ended up going No. 2 overall, quarterbacks (or, more likely, their agents) see the potential negatives far outweighing the positives for passers with a successful college track record.

“You don’t go somewhere and run a game plan, you never practice, and you throw to guys you don’t practice with in an environment you’re not prepared for,” Griffin said at the time when asked why he didn’t throw at his combine.

Though most of the class last year chose to throw, quarterbacks declining to do so at the combine isn’t exactly a surprise.

Of the past four passers who ended up going No. 1 overall (Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton and Andrew Luck), only Newton took the field in Indianapolis. And Newton struggled, which — even though it didn’t cost him the top spot in the draft — has made him something of a cautionary tale among agents.