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There's method to Vlad madness

"In the roughly four weeks since the World Series has ended, the Rangers have declined to pick up Vladimir Guerrero's option and, most recently, declined to offer him salary arbitration.

They did all of this because – are you ready for this? – they want him back.

On the surface, it seems a little strange, maybe even a tad ingenuous.

The truth, though, is this works best for everybody.

If anybody is taking a risk, it's the Rangers, not Guerrero. Even if he doesn't land the multi-year deal he's seeking, Guerrero will sign somewhere for 2011. Guys who hit .300 with 115 RBIs don't just vanish overnight.

If Guerrero signs anywhere other than Texas, the Rangers won't receive a pair of compensatory draft picks. If he returns to Texas, it may very well be for more than the $9 million "option."

First, understand the "option" was an option in name only. It really was a layaway plan that allowed the Rangers to add an extra $1 million to his final salary at a point in time when they didn't have an extra $1 million in reserve. All Guerrero had to do to get the $1 million buyout was decline the option. In the event he had a poor 2010 and decided the option was his most lucrative deal, the Rangers had the ability to decline the option and pay the buyout.

The decision to decline to offer arbitration requires a little more explanation. For Guerrero, it offers the opportunity to truly test the market. If signing him required a team to forfeit a first-round draft pick, it might very well falsely lower his market value. Now, if he comes back to the Rangers to negotiate a one-year deal, it will be with an extremely clear sense of what the market is willing – or unwilling – to pay him.

The Rangers, well, they potentially benefit also by getting the truest sense of the market and by getting more time to concentrate on re-signing Cliff Lee without having any more of their 2011 payroll eaten up by a significant contract. It's easier to fit a DH in after getting word on Lee than the other way around.

Look at it this way: If the Rangers don't sign Lee, they will have more money to throw at a DH. If they do sign Lee, they may have less money but will offer an infinitely better chance to win than just about any other shopper.

And, as for the market, it includes more than Guerrero, which only benefits the Rangers. This is a good year to be trying to sign a DH. The market is flooded with them. Not just run-of-the-mill guys either. "


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