"The question for the Reds this offseason is how to compete next year with an $85 million payroll.

Toward that end, they must 1.) Play the odds, and 2.) Make sure the entire organization is on board with the plan.

An $85 million payroll is enough to compete, but you've got to spend it smartly.

So, which of the following moves represents "playing the odds"?

Item: Extending the contract of their 32-year-old second baseman Brandon Phillips – yes, ''Datdude'' will be 32 in 2012 – who is coming off a career year."