"Ryan Braun, Brewers: Aside from a drop in home run power in 2010, Braun has been a remarkably steady player over the last three seasons. He has become a perennial .300-plus hitter thanks to decent contact rates and an aversion to flyballs, yet he has managed to maintain his power stats in spite of the latter trend. Fantasy owners got a bonus last season, as Braun more than doubled his stolen base attempts, and first-year manager Ron Roenicke had a little bit to do with that. In the event that Braun plays a full season, there would be no reason to expect any serious dropoff from his MVP levels of 2011. Of course, it is highly likely that he will miss nearly one-third of the season, so his projections have been prorated accordingly. That leaves Braun's projected Fantasy points (409) on a level similar to that of Brett Gardner (416) or Jose Tabata (415).
As argued above, Braun has a lot more draft value than someone like Gardner or Tabata, but how much more? Let's size him up against the other selected outfielders.
Andrew McCutchen, Pirates: McCutchen started to look like a slugger this year, hitting more flyballs, striking out more often, and producing his first 20-plus home run season. McCutchen's Fantasy value crept upwards as a result, but he did pay a price in the form of a lower batting average and fewer stolen bases. Even without a reverse of his increasing strikeout rate, McCutchen is likely to raise his .259 batting average with some better luck on balls in play, and he should make some modest gains in the other statistical categories, too, as he is still on the upswing of his development curve.
McCutchen's projected total of 535 Fantasy points makes him a superior option to Braun on draft day. Even factoring in the points that Braun's replacement-level substitute would provide, McCutchen appears to be on target to exceed the production that the Braun/fill-in combo would deliver. Since McCutchen projects to be a third-round pick, owners would do well to wait until later rounds to start targeting Braun.
Shane Victorino, Phillies: Like McCutchen, Victorino took to hitting flyballs at a higher rate in 2011, but it's harder to take seriously as a continuing trend in the Flyin' Hawaiian's case. Both McCutchen and Victorino experienced increases in their flyball rates of more than five percentage points, but for the 31-year-old Phillie, it looks like more of an aberration. That's why I have Victorino forecasted for a slight downturn in his home run rate, though that is washed out by a predicted increase in at-bats. With Victorino set to hit fewer homers and drive in fewer runs than McCutchen, his Fantasy value falls a notch below that of the Pirates' budding star.
With a projected value of 511 Fantasy points, Victorino comes in only slightly below the Braun/fill-in pairing. Victorino is likely to be a target during the fourth or fifth round of mixed league drafts, so this is a reasonable spot in which to consider Braun. However, if other owners in your leagues perceive that there is a risk in taking Braun here, it may be a reach to grab him this early. Given the similarity between Braun's and Victorino's projected value, there is certainly little risk in going for Victorino in this spot. "
