The Detroit Pistons, slotted seventh, fell to the No. 8 pick in the NBA draft lottery this week. There isn’t much difference between pick seven and eight in this draft, but there’s a big difference between staying in that range and moving into the top three.

If I had to guess today, the draft would go as follows:

1. Cleveland Cavaliers – Nerlens Noel

2. Orlando Magic – Trey Burke

3. Washington Wizards – Otto Porter Jr.

4. Charlotte Bobcats – Ben McLemore

5. Phoenix Suns – Victor Oladipo

6. New Orleans Pelicans – Anthony Bennett

7. Sacramento Kings – C.J. McCollum

Noel, Burke, Porter McLemore and Oladipo have become consensus members of the draft’s top five or six players. Though the Pistons have gotten lucky in two of the last three drafts, with Greg Monroe falling to No. 7 and Andre Drummond falling to No. 9, Detroit can’t again count on similar fortune. (Most 2011 mock drafts listed Brandon Knight much higher than No. 8, where Pistons picked him, but that was because many expected the Jazz (No. 3) or Raptors (No. 5) to reach for a point guard who deserved to be ranked about eighth.)

At this point, Noel, Burke, Porter McLemore and Oladipo are pipe dreams for the Pistons.

That makes Bennett, ranked by some in a group with the aforementioned five players, Detroit’s dream pick.

Bennett, a freshman forward from UNLV, is an explosive athlete whose ball skills and mobility make him a matchup issue for opposing power forwards. There’s a chance he can transition to small forward, but I wouldn’t count on it. Obviously, that’s not ideal with Monroe and Drummond — and neither is Bennett’s defensive indifference at UNLV nor the rotator-cuff surgery he had that will keep him out until the fall — but Bennett is so far ahead of the next prospect that if he’s there, he should be the pick.

McCollum to the Kings is merely an educated guess, because, after Bennett, there’s a deep group of players in that tier. In other words, McCollum is more likely to be available for the Pistons than not, but I had to stick someone as No. 7.

It’s certainly worth evaluating McCollum as a strong Pistons possibility. He scored very well at Lehigh, but he didn’t show the passing skills his height (6-feet-3) will require in the NBA. Lehigh needed McCollum to score, and it’s possible he has playmaking skills the system never allowed him to showcase, but it’s a risk to draft a player who didn’t prove himself, regardless of the reason. Another question is whether he and Brandon Knight are big enough to defend in tandem, but at this point, I wouldn’t let Knight's presence influence any draft decisions.