"The first round of all 2012 Fantasy Football drafts will look dramatically different than they have in recent years. That's because for the first time since 2008 we won't see Adrian Peterson among the Top 12 picks.
Peterson might not be ready to start the season after tearing his ACL and MCL in Week 16, and no one should reach for him with a first-round pick. The same goes for Jamaal Charles and Rashard Mendenhall, who are also coming off significant knee injuries. Charles should be ready by Week 1, but he's not a Top 12 running back next season. And Mendenhall hurt his knee in Week 17, so his rehab might take a long time and linger into the start of next year.
What we saw in 2011 is three quarterbacks deserve to be drafted in Round 1 in 2012 with Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady. They were the Top 3 overall players in all standard leagues, and they should be able to duplicate their performances in 2012. They are safe, and they are stars.
Running backs will once again dominate the first round, with Arian Foster, Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy the easy Top 3 overall selections. The reason you should take that trio ahead of Rodgers and Brees is because what they can do at the running back spot gives them more value. You should feel more comfortable about taking McCoy and Matthew Stafford in the first two rounds then taking Rodgers and Frank Gore. For example, McCoy and Stafford combined for 685 Fantasy points in 2011, while Rodgers and Gore combined for 637.
Only one receiver cracks my initial Top 12 for 2012, and that's Calvin Johnson. The reason is simple: He was the No. 3 non-quarterback in Fantasy stats in 2011 behind Rice and McCoy. And he should continue to play at an elite level as long as Stafford stays healthy.
Four players you could argue who deserve first-round consideration are Darren McFadden, Michael Turner, Steven Jackson and Rob Gronkowski. McFadden is a star, but health makes him a risky first-round pick. Turner and Jackson are ready to hit a decline in production, and I wouldn't draft them early next season.
As for Gronkowski, he is the clear-cut No. 1 tight end in 2012 after he scored 233 Fantasy points this past season, which would have made him the No. 2 receiver behind Johnson and No. 5 running back behind Rice, McCoy, Maurice Jones-Drew and Foster. Taking Gronkowski early would give you a significant edge at tight end since he outscored Jimmy Graham by 56 points. But it's still too soon to draft a tight end in Round 1, and the earliest I would take Gronkowski is the beginning of Round 3 after securing two studs at either running back, quarterback or receiver.
Before we look at building a roster, we'll give you a glimpse of a potential first round for 2012. Remember, a lot can change between now and August, but this is a sample of what Round 1 might look like next year.
1. Arian Foster, RB, Texans
2011 stats: 278 carries for 1,224 yards and 10 touchdowns; 53 catches for 617 yards and two touchdowns (71 targets); three fumbles
2011 Fantasy points (weekly average): 238 (18.3)
2011 Average Draft Position: No. 3 overall (Round 1)
Foster finished 47 Fantasy points behind Rice for the No. 1 running back spot in 2011, but that was with him getting just three points over the first three weeks of the season because of an injured hamstring. If Foster hit his average weekly points during that period he would have finished with 293 Fantasy points and ahead of Rice. We like Foster to be No. 1 in 2012 with Gary Kubiak back because the system in Houston is catered to rushing success. Foster could also be in a contract year if he's not signed this offseason, and he again has a favorable schedule in his division and against Buffalo, Green Bay, New England and Denver -- all teams that struggled in run defense this year.
2. Ray Rice, RB, Ravens
2011 stats: 291 carries for 1,364 yards and 12 touchdowns; 76 catches for 704 yards and three touchdowns (104 targets); two fumbles; one passing touchdown
2011 Fantasy points (weekly average): 285 (17.8)
2011 Average Draft Position: No. 4 overall (Round 1)
Rice is a free agent this offseason, but we hope he can work out a new contract and stay with the Ravens without any problems. He showed in 2011 that he can be a featured rusher, and he was second in receptions and targets at running back behind Darren Sproles. Rice can easily repeat as the No. 1 running back in 2012, but we would take him just after Foster. He also has a favorable schedule next season against Denver, Oakland, New England, Kansas City, San Diego and Washington. The Ravens will likely bring in another running back to help share the load with Rice, but he should continue to be the No. 1 option on offense in Baltimore.
3. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles
2011 stats: 273 carries for 1,309 yards and 17 touchdowns; 48 catches for 315 yards and three touchdowns (69 targets); one fumble
2011 Fantasy points (weekly average): 270 (18.0)
2011 Average Draft Position: No. 9 overall (Round 1)
McCoy might have been the No. 1 running back in 2011 if he played in Week 17. He sat out the season finale against Washington with an injured ankle, and Rice had 31 Fantasy points to take the top spot. McCoy was the picture of consistency in 2011 with double digits in Fantasy points in all but one game. He was No. 2 in weekly average for non-quarterbacks behind Foster, and he should have another outstanding season in 2012 with Andy Reid back. McCoy will be entering a contract year in 2012, which could give him more incentive for a big season, but he is proving that Reid can do wonders with running backs since he is playing just as well, if not better, than Brian Westbrook did in his heyday. McCoy should again be a star next season.
4. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers
2011 stats: 4,643 passing yards, 45 touchdowns and six interceptions; 257 rushing yards and three touchdowns
2011 Fantasy points (weekly average): 475 (31.7)
2011 Average Draft Position: No. 6 overall (Round 1)
Rodgers continues to prove he's the best quarterback in the NFL, and he's definitely the best Fantasy quarterback. Even though he sat out Week 17 against Detroit to rest for the playoffs, he was still three points better than Brees. He accounted for 48 total touchdowns with just six turnovers, and his receiving corps is amazing with Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson and Jermichael Finley leading the way. We hope Finley is retained as a free agent, but even if he leaves Rodgers will still post amazing stats. You can definitely take him at No. 1 overall, and he should be the first non-running back drafted in all leagues. Rodgers is safe because he will produce at a high level for 16 games. He had fewer than 25 Fantasy points just twice in 2011."
