"There's a chance that Shawne Merriman will wind up making Buddy Nix look like a genius. Maybe Merriman will shrug off his chronic injuries and revert to his Pro Bowl form of a few years ago, terrorizing opposing quarterbacks and leading the Bills back to the playoffs.

I'm dubious.

It came as a shock Saturday to hear that Nix had re-signed Merriman to a two-year deal. When the Bills claimed Merriman off waivers in early November, I assumed it was a half-year rental and there was virtually no chance the former Chargers star would sign an extension and stay in Buffalo.

But lo and behold, Merriman agreed to a two-year contract for an estimated $5.25 million a year -- more if he reaches performance incentives. It's a pretty generous deal for a guy who was cut in mid-season by a contender and earned $1.7 million without playing a down for the Bills.

My initial reaction was why. Why would Merriman sign with the Bills when he was scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent, with the right to peddle his services to all 32 teams? Why rush into this deal and eliminate a precious opportunity to test the waters for the highest bidder?

The answer is the same as it was when Terrell Owens came to our town. It was the best offer he could get. It had to be. When Merriman was cut by the Chargers, there were numerous reports that he was hoping to go to a more exotic locale, like Miami or Tampa Bay. Instead, the winless Bills got first crack.

Now they're overpaying for him. That's how it goes. If you want an NFL free agent to consider Buffalo, you overpay. You need to outbid the market and discourage the player from looking around. Merriman's agent is no fool. He had to know this was by far the best offer his client could get.

This reminds me of what the Sabres did with Tim Connolly a couple of years ago. Connolly was due to become a free agent, but the Sabres gave him an outlandish raise and took him off the market. They gave him a two-year, $9 million deal that was likely better than anything the injury-prone Connolly would have fetched elsewhere.

Nix was the chief of scouting when the Chargers drafted Merriman 12th overall in 2005. Now, he wants to look like the smartest guy in the room again. Nix still believes in his guy and wants to prove everyone else -- including his old boss in San Diego, A.J. Smith -- wrong.

The Bills have money. They were $25 million under last year's cap in actual spending when they claimed Merriman in November. A few days later, Merriman pronounced himself ready to return to action. About 15 minutes into his first practice, he hobbled off after re-injuring his Achilles."