"Here's the dirty little secret about the NBA lockout, despite what both sides — the owners and the players — would have you believe:

They are a lot closer to a settlement than most people realize.

I know this because I talk regularly with a bunch of important people who tell me important things, and I am going to explain why I believe a settlement will be reached that will not only save the season, but also enable the NBA to have an "all is forgiven" honeymoon period (similar to what the NFL just experienced following its labor settlement) in which the frenzy of free agents signings, trades, training camps and exhibition games will make everyone forget all of the doomsday talk they've been hearing all summer.

First, some background. If you only listened to union director Billy Hunter, as NBA players were doing in late August while Hunter was touring the country giving status updates to his locked-out membership, you'd think the sides are currently $8 billion apart in their stagnant negotiations. That is the party line from the union.

But it is not entirely true."