The Minnesota Timberwolves are slowly rising in the Western Conference playoff picture, but to really make a dent, they needed to take a risk. Well, taking a risk is exactly what they did with their biggest free-agent signing. Will that risk pay off? We analyze their offseason moves.


This is exactly the kind of risk a team like the Timberwolves has to make in order to reach the upper echelon of the league. There's a decent chance that Roy's knee problems are just too much to overcome and the money will have been wasted. There's a equally decent chance that he is healthy, recovers 80 percent of his previous form and becomes the team's second-leading scorer and top perimeter threat. The reward of that happening far outweighs the risk that the two-year, $10 million deal will be a complete waste.

Let's assume that Roy remains relatively healthy, as he has thus far in his Timberwolves career. One interesting question will be how new coach Rick Adelman incorporates his skill set. Adelman is a proponent of the "corner" offensive system, described in detail in this Bright Side of the Sun post. For the system to work, the guards have to be adept at moving without the ball. It's a great system for Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio, but Roy may have to adjust a bit. In his last days in Portland, he was much more of an isolation scorer. Here, he will need to focus more on his off-ball game and work harder to get open shots off screens. He's capable of doing this, and in fact, the shift in emphasis might extend his career, but I expect an adjustment period as he reconditions his playing style.

Eventually, Roy should be a very good fit for Adelman's style. If he can adjust quickly, and if he can stay healthy, the Timberwolves got a major steal.