"One more game and that's all she wrote. One more game and the season is over. One more game and your fantasy league standings will be final. Hopefully you won some of those leagues with our help here at Saves and Steals (and RotoWorld).
But for many of you the season is not going to be completely over tomorrow, either. Many of you are in keeper leagues, and you'll be trying to decide wether or not your closers are worth rostering into next season. Most of the time, it comes down to a comparison with a position player or starting pitcher. And most of the time, the closer should come up short. There's just so much variability from year to year. So much volatility in the position means you should take the player that will most likely still have his job next year, even if he isn't as good at it.
In order to help you make these keeper decisions, we'll name these tiers after players that are comparable keepers. That should help provide the context for this list, which is ranked not by how the closers did last season, but how likely they are to repeat their seasons next year (and the year after).
Because a true keeper closer is about as rare as Mariano Rivera.
Tier 1: Elite (5) (AKA: The "Pablo Sandoval" Tier.)
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
?Pablo Sandoval had a good year at a position that took some serious injury hits. But he only hit 23 home runs, and he has a bad year on his resume as well. It probably still makes sense to keep the Panda over one of these closers, but it should make for a decent discussion.
?Jonathan Papelbon's only demerit is the fact that he doesn't have a contract next year. There's very little chance that he doesn't end up a closer with that next contract in hand, but it's worth moving him down past a player who was excellent this year and is under contract next year with the same team. Otherwise Papelbon seems to be in his prime and is working on all cylinders.
?The guy that moves past him? Only Craig Kimbrel and his rookie record saves total. And fifteen strikeouts per nine. And his blazing fastball. Yeah, that guy.
?John Axford has now held his walk rate in check for two years in a row, and is back with the Brewers next year. He should be fine for at least the first half -- if they are terrible, it's worth mentioning that they might trade him at any moment. And Joel Hanrahan suffers under the same fate. He's also young enough, under control, and excellent enough to keep, but the Pirates might get a nice offer for him at some point."
