We know that Embiid's injury is serious. Breaking the navicular bone in your foot is a major injury, as our own Kevin Pelton pointed out yesterday.

I've had teams tell me he could be out anywhere from four months to a year. No one will really know for sure until they receive updated medicals after his surgery Friday. Not every break is the same; some are harder to fix than others. Once we have a better timetable on his injury, we'll have a better feel for his draft stock.

But as of Thursday night, here's what we know: The chances that he goes No. 1 or No. 2 are slim to none. There are two other good options on the board in Wiggins and Parker, and neither of them has had a stress fracture in their back and foot.

But after that? All bets are off.

The Sixers took a gamble on Nerlens Noel last year knowing he likely would miss the entire season. Noel is now healthy and ready to play, and many feel he was the best pick in his draft class. The Sixers' timeline can allow them to be patient. Noel and the No. 10 pick could be their rookies this season. However, Embiid isn't a perfect fit next to Noel, and the Sixers have also coveted Exum. So I think the odds that the Sixers take Embiid at No. 3 are less than 20 percent.

The Magic have wanted a rim protector and could see an opportunity here. They too have another lottery pick and some flexibility to be patient. Nikola Vucevic has been more than solid the past two years, but he doesn't provide the Magic with the shot-blocking they desperately need. If Embiid makes a full recovery, he's a steal at No. 4. The problem for the Magic is that they have other needs, too. They need a point guard, and Marcus Smart will be there. They also need a stretch 4, and Vonleh is likely to be on the board. Can they pass on both of them for Embiid? I put the odds of them doing so at 50 percent.

The Jazz are intrigued, as well, but I doubt they'd pull the trigger on Embiid. They went into the tank this season with the idea that they'd bounce back in 2014-15. With Embiid, it would be another season at the bottom of the standings in the West. I don't think ownership signed up for that.

That leaves the Celtics. From everything I can gather, GM Danny Ainge, barring unforeseen complications in Embiid's surgery, wouldn't let Embiid slide past here. If Ainge can't land Kevin Love, I think you'll see the Celtics go into full rebuilding mode this summer, and taking Embiid, the guy who could end up being the best player in the draft, would have to be very tempting.