"The explanations for James Shields' rough 2010 season span from bad pitching to bad luck with some poor mechanics and pitch selection along the way. With a career-high 15 losses, 5.18 ERA and an AL-most and team-record 34 home runs allowed, there is a lot to talk about.

Shields' version is it wasn't nearly as bad as it looked, more a matter of a couple of pitches in a couple of innings over a couple of games that inflated the numbers.

"If you take away three or four of my games," the right-hander said, "I've got a sub-4 ERA and no one's really talking about it."

There's something to that, although his math might be a bit off — given the six-homer debacle in Toronto, a 10-runs-in-31/3-innings mess in Miami and a couple of 6-7 spots along the way.

And there are stats to support the "unfortunate" angle — "terribly unlucky" concludes SI.com's sabermetric analysis — given Shields still had impressive strikeout numbers (a career-high 187 in 2031/3 innings and a 3.67 strikeouts-to-walk ratio that was fourth best in the AL).

He also didn't allow more line drives or fly balls than usual, which could have been the cause of the bloated runs and homer totals. And he had the lowest run support and most unearned runs on the staff. (Of the 10 games the Rays were shut out, he was the loser five times.)

Pitching coach Jim Hickey takes a broader view, acknowledging the blips and some mechanical flaws while pointing out the positives such as the strikeout totals and Shields' 5-1, 3.08 record through his first nine starts.

But, he concludes, "There may have been some misfortune, but there were probably more bad pitches than there was bad luck."

The Rays have reasons to believe Shields, 29, can bounce back, enough to keep him the No. 2 starter in their rotation and for Hickey to say "any reasonable person should believe that he's going to perform considerably better than last year."

Some are simple. Shields is healthy. He went through extensive winter workouts to strengthen his core and improve his balance. He has corrected the flaws in his mechanics that flattened out his pitches and made his fastball too hittable (a .348 average against, highest in the AL)."