"A month ago we wondered if Matt Ryan might be the NFL's MVP. Now we get to spend the next eight months pondering whether Matty Ice might be overhyped. (Google his name and "overrated." You'll get the drift.) He has led the Falcons to three consecutive winning seasons - before Ryan arrived, no Atlanta quarterback had managed even two - but twice he has saved his worst for last.

Ryan's playoff numbers: A total of 385 yards passing; an average of 5.7 yards per pass (which is awful); three touchdowns; four interceptions; two fumbles lost; eight sacks. He was a rookie on the road against Arizona in January 2009, but Saturday he was a fully blooded professional working in the building he has made his own.

Yes, winning in postseason is hard. (Peyton Manning needed six seasons to win his first playoff game; John Elway needed four.) But the magnitude of the loss to Green Bay has forced us to look harder at the 13-3 Falcons, and we cannot excuse Ryan from that examination.

He ranked ninth among NFL quarterbacks this season in yards passing. He was tied for sixth (with the Packers' Aaron Rodgers) in touchdown passes and was 12th (just behind Michael Vick) in completion percentage. His passer rating of 91.9 slotted him 11th (just behind Peyton Manning, just ahead of Drew Brees). His average of 6.5 yards per pass was 26th best in a 32-team league. Ryan was named to the NFC's Pro Bowl roster, but his numbers weren't Pro Bowl caliber.

And yet: Ryan was great on third down - the Falcons ranked third behind New Orleans and New England in conversions - and he engineered six victories when the Falcons trailed or were tied in the fourth quarter. And that's the perplexing part. The Falcons know full well what this quarterback can do, but they take their time getting around to letting him do it.

It's not that they're afraid Ryan will mess up: He threw only nine interceptions in 571 passes this season, and those 571 attempts were the sixth-most by any quarterback. It isn't that he doesn't get to throw but that he throws to so little effect. Ryan's longest completion this season was for 46 yards; every regular starting quarterback save Arizona's Derek Anderson managed a more substantial gain.

About here, I know what some among you are saying: "See! I told you he doesn't have the arm strength!" Balderdash. His arm meets NFL specifications. And if arm strength were the sole determinant, Jeff George would have been Joe Montana."