One school of thought on Curtis Granderson is that he will accept the Yankees’ qualifying offer, return on a one-year, $14.1 million contract and re-enter the free-agent market next offseason.

I wouldn’t bet on it.

Sure, Granderson played in only 61 games last season after twice getting hit by pitches and suffering broken bones, first in his right forearm, then in his left pinkie. It’s not as if he has chronic leg or back problems. Both of his injuries were freakish. His previous two seasons were excellent. And the industry, in case you haven’t noticed, is starved for power.

The qualifying offer will hurt Granderson’s market, given the reluctance of teams to sacrifice high draft picks and the accompanying bonus money for free agents. But compare Granderson’s slash line to Nick Swisher’s a year ago, when Swisher landed a four-year, $56 million free-agent contract from the Indians after the Yankees stuck him with a qualifying offer.

Granderson: .261/.340/.488.

Swisher: .256/.361/.467.

That’s right, both had the same .828 OPS in almost an identical number of career plate appearances. Granderson, who turns 33 on March 16, is eight months older than Swisher was as a free agent. Swisher is a switch-hitter, Granderson bats left-handed. Whatever, the two were about as close statistically as players can get.