"This is the best time of year to glean important information from hockey statistics. Breakdowns are often offered for pre- and post-All Star game numbers and there is a significant sample size available for the current season, yet there also remains enough games to be played that making changes can have an impact.
It's that perfect window of opportunity when there is enough data to learn from and still enough time to do something with it.
In that spirit, we begin this week's Forecaster with some team statistics that may surprise you based on your preconceived or "at-a-glimpse" notions.
The Nashville Predators have the second-best power play. That's right, the same Predators that are more known for their defensive ability to win games are more dangerous on the man advantage this season than any team other than the Vancouver Canucks. Currently converting on 22.4 percent of the team's 170 power-play opportunities this season, the Predators roster is the place to look for help in the power-play department for fantasy. And since only the two All-Star defensemen (Shea Weber and Ryan Suter) plus Pekka Rinne are the only players owned in 100 percent of ESPN leagues, there are plenty of places to look.
First and foremost, the connection established during the past month between Mike Fisher and Martin Erat has been significant. After going through several line combinations this season, these two have really hit things off on the top line. Fisher and Erat have a combined 27 points in the past 12 games, and 11 of those points have come on the power play. While Erat is quickly approaching universal ownership in ESPN leagues, Fisher remains on the free-agent pile in 27 percent of leagues. Another place to cast a glance would be on the blue line. No, not Weber or Suter, but rather up and coming offensive powerhouse Ryan Ellis, who actually leads all Predators blueliners in points during the past month and has connected on four power-play points in his past 12 games. As long as he continues to earn at least 15 minutes of ice time per game, he should have relevance in deep fantasy leagues.
The goaltending for the Columbus Blue Jackets hasn't been that bad. That may seem like a ridiculous statement, but the adjusted goaltender metrics reveal this to be true. If you take every team's goals-against average this season, you will see that only the Tampa Bay Lightning have allowed more goals than the Blue Jackets' 3.28 team goals-against average. However, if you take out all the goals that were scored when the team put the goalie at a disadvantage -- power-play goals, empty-net goals, penalty shots -- the Blue Jackets have the largest improvement in GAA in the league, going from 3.28 to 2.27 GAA. All of a sudden, the Carolina Hurricanes, Ottawa Senators and even the New Jersey Devils have to envy the Blue Jackets' adjusted team GAA. Of course, you also must consider things in context. The Devils are rock-solid at penalty killing, so there's little adjusting to do to the team's GAA. Still, the number above indicates that there is a chance the Blue Jackets, under interim coach Todd Richards, can see a quick and vast improvement to the situation in net. I'm not rushing to the waiver wire to add Curtis Sanford or Steve Mason to my team, but if I see a hot streak by the Jackets in the next couple weeks, I might think that they have solved some issues on the penalty kill and consider adding a Jackets goaltender, probably Sanford."
