If history is any guide, the odds of David Ortiz [stats] and Jonathan Papelbon [stats] re-signing with the Red Sox [team stats] are long.

In the last decade, management has tended to allow its top free agents — Adrian Beltre, Victor Martinez, Jason Bay, Johnny Damon, Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe — to sign elsewhere in exchange for the extra draft picks, either out of a belief that those players' most productive seasons were behind them or an unwillingness to meet their desired price tag.

Ortiz, the Red Sox' DH since 2003, and Papelbon, the closer since 2006, were among eight Red Sox who filed for free agency yesterday.