"While there remains one more week in championship matchups in ESPN standard leagues, we're not about to ignore that many leagues have already wrapped up their title games, electing to use Week 16 as a one-week championship game.
If you're a lucky winner -- or become one on Sunday -- congratulations. But if you're a runner-up or a solid regular-season team that made your league's playoffs, congratulations as well. Remember, anything can happen in the fantasy football playoffs, so there's no shame in finishing second, because the margin between victory and defeat can often be razor thin.
Of course, with the conclusion of the 2011 fantasy football season comes the inevitable early discussion of next season, most notably: Who stands out as the early No. 1 choice in 2012 drafts?
With Adrian Peterson now facing reconstructive knee surgery, and a potential eight- to nine-month rehabilitation, it's a fascinating debate. And examining it a good seven or eight months in advance, my take is that it's not the highest-upside megastud player who is always the obvious pick. Sometimes, the smartest choice is the one who was most consistently reliable the previous season.
Look back at the 2010 returns, for example. Here are where seven of the most prominent fantasy stars of 2011 finished in terms of 2010 Consistency Ratings:
Aaron Rodgers: 68.8 percent Consistency Rating (tied for first among quarterbacks), Stud in 8 of 15 games.
Drew Brees: 68.8 percent Consistency Rating (tied for first among quarterbacks), Stud in 4 of 16 games.
LeSean McCoy: 81.3 percent Consistency Rating (tied for second among running backs), Stud in 4 of 15 games.
Ray Rice: 75.0 percent Consistency Rating (tied for fifth among running backs), Stud in 4 of 16 games.
Arian Foster: 87.5 percent Consistency Rating (No. 1 overall in the NFL), Stud in 10 of 16 games (also tops in the league).
Calvin Johnson: 62.5 percent Consistency Rating (tied for fifth among wide receivers), Stud in 6 of 15 games.
Rob Gronkowski: 50.0 percent Consistency Rating (tied for fifth among tight ends), Stud in 3 of 16 games.
That's right, every one of this season's leaders at his respective position in terms of fantasy points was a top-five finisher in Consistency Ratings in 2010, names like McCoy, Johnson and Gronkowski not exactly obvious picks as position leaders. (For instance, McCoy was the No. 6 running back off the board on average this preseason, Johnson the No. 4 wide receiver and Gronkowski the No. 13 tight end.)
Now let's take a look at 2012's top candidates:
Aaron Rodgers: His perfect 100.0 percent Consistency Rating (15-for-15 in Starts) is one of two in the game -- Maurice Jones-Drew is the other -- and he has been a fantasy Stud on 14 of 15 occasions. That the Green Bay Packers have wrapped up home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs makes it likely that Rodgers will sit for a significant portion of the Week 17 game, meaning he'll probably finish with those same 15 Start and 14 Stud performances. But that's still head and shoulders above anyone else in the league. Yes, quarterback is a deep position these days, but Rodgers' 385 fantasy points -- 25 shy of LaDainian Tomlinson's single-season record -- still presents a considerable advantage over the rest of the field. Heck, it's 135 points greater than that of the No. 6 quarterback (Tony Romo) and 168 more than No. 10 Mark Sanchez.
LeSean McCoy: He's second to Jones-Drew in Consistency Rating among running backs with 93.3 percent, but considering the Philadelphia Eagles' issues this season, that's a remarkable performance. Another plus: He has been a fantasy Stud nine times, third-most in the league and tied for the lead among running backs."
