"Suspicion became fact Thursday as the Cardinals announced that ace Adam Wainwright will require ligament replacement surgery on his right elbow.

Four days before its first spring exhibition and more than four weeks before opening its regular season schedule, the club may have reached a fork in a well-traveled road.

Team orthopedist Dr. George Paletta is scheduled to perform the procedure on Monday. Standard recovery from such surgery last 12 to 15 months.

"Not to be melodramatic, but you're losing an ace," Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak said during a briefing at Roger Dean Stadium. "It's not something you can just replace overnight. Some different people are going to have to step up."

The next four weeks will determine who those people will be.

Meanwhile, the question hovers: Does Wainwright's loss for the upcoming season — and probably a portion of 2012 — lead to a replay of the Cardinals' inspired 2002 NL Central title run or their calamitous 2007 season?

"We do have to be patient. Internally, we don't want to have a knee-jerk response to this," Mozeliak said. "We're going to be patient and try to decide what makes most sense for us."

Wainwright declined interview requests Thursday, saying through a team spokesman that he will wait until after surgery to address the situation. The team has no such option and must immediately begin charting a course minus the league's most productive starting pitcher over the last two seasons.

"The way to think about it is everybody moves up one and you have to fill the fifth," Mozeliak said.

Manager Tony La Russa already has drawn on 2002 for inspiration. The Cardinals that season won a league-most 97 games despite suffering a crush of early injuries that led to 10 different starters appearing in April. The death in June of Darryl Kile cost the club both a former 20-game winner and a staff pillar. In all, 15 pitchers made starts that season. Only Matt Morris and independent-league refugee Jason Simontacchi worked more than 17."