"For the most part, we get a good sense of what type of a hitter someone is from their first season or two in the majors, if not from their minor league career. For example, Mike Stanton's power hasn't exactly come out of nowhere, Vladimir Guerrero has been a superb contact hitter since his rookie days, and Kevin Youkilis was the Greek God of Walks before he even set foot on a major league diamond.
Sometimes, though, players aren't who we thought they were. They evolve into a different sort of offensive weapon, developing new skills that weren't a part of their initial profile.
Featured here are four players who had all spent sizeable parts of two or more major league seasons coming into the 2011 campaign, but each did things this past season that were unexpected. Each has also given us signs that indicate that the change could be long-lasting. In addition to interpreting those signals, we will see what they could mean for their Fantasy value in 2012.
In selecting this small pool of hitters, I have identified four particular skill areas and chosen a player who has exhibited some of the greatest improvement in each area. The skill areas correspond with the four basic ways that a hitter can improve offensively. He can put the ball in play more often, hit it out of the park with greater frequency, get more base hits when it stays in the park, or work the count more to get free passes.
These four hitters may not be the biggest or most exciting names in the draft room, but each appears to have changed in a way that should make us reconsider his draft value this spring. Also, I have included the names of a few additional players who have recently changed their skill profile, and each bears watching this season to see if the trend continues.
Cameron Maybin, OF, Padres (improved contact skills): Coming into 2011, we knew that Maybin had the potential to be a speed-power threat, and with 40 steals, he certainly delivered on the speed part. He may have a difficult time upgrading some of his doubles and triples into homers playing home games at PETCO Park, but Maybin improved an aspect of his game that he could control. After striking out in 29 and 32 percent of his at-bats over the last two seasons with the Marlins, respectively, Maybin cut his K-rate down to 24 percent last season. It's probably no coincidence that Maybin was a much more aggressive hitter, reducing his pitches per plate appearance and, according to Fangraphs.com, setting a career high in percentage of pitches swung at. Though Maybin swung and missed more often, he also made contact more frequently, and fewer Ks were the net result.
The increased contact helped Maybin to raise his batting average from .234 to .264, but he's still not exactly a batting title contender. What makes the improvement exciting is that Maybin still has room to improve other skills. As a minor leaguer, he was a better line drive hitter than he has shown in the majors, and he also boasted double-digit walk rates. The former could further drive his batting average upward, while the latter will also add to his on-base percentage. As much improvement as Maybin showed last year, progress in either or both of these areas could make Maybin a solid middle-round option in standard mixed Head-to-Head leagues as well as Rotisserie leagues.
Others with improved contact skills: David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox; Justin Upton, OF, Diamondbacks; Will Venable, OF, Padres
Declining contact skills: Josh Willingham, OF, Twins; Adam Dunn, DH, White Sox; Geovany Soto, C, Cubs
Howard Kendrick, 2B, Angels (improved power skills): There is a strong correlation between the length of a batter's plate appearance and the frequency with which his flyballs become homers, and that relationship can be seen in Kendrick's recent stats. Two seasons ago, Kendrick produced a disappointing 10 home runs in 616 at-bats, as he took on a more aggressive approach at the plate. Last year, he set a career high with 3.97 pitches per plate appearance, and waiting for his pitch paid off. Kendrick's 15 percent home run per flyball rate was also a career high, which enabled him to smash 18 dingers in just 537 at-bats, even though his flyball rate stayed steady at 28 percent.
There is nothing in Kendrick's history to suggest that he will start hitting more flyballs, as he has always been mostly a ground ball hitter. However, he showed last season -- and to a lesser extent in 2009 -- that he can generate home run power when he takes a more patient approach. The good news is that, aside from 2010, Kendrick has steadily become a more patient hitter. Maybe there's not much room for Kendrick to increase his power, but with his power-starved 2010 campaign looking like an aberration, it is safe to expect him to at least maintain the home run clout that he showed us last year. Kendrick was a top-eight second baseman in both Rotisserie and Head-to-Head formats last season, and while some owners might expect a regression, there is good reason to expect Kendrick to be in that same neighborhood again this season. "
