What chance do you give the Rangers of landing Shohei Otani?

Grant: If it comes down to the dollars available and a college-recruiting like pitch, I make the Rangers the favorite. It's going to cost less than $30 million to sign Otani with the biggest variance being in what teams have available in international bonus money.

The Rangers, according to the Associated Press, have the biggest remaining pool. Also, they've worked for years on establishing relationships in Japan. I believe the Rangers are willing to let him hit, at least on a part-time basis, which is advantageous for them because I don't think every team is going to be willing to do that.

All that is great, but if you are Otani and you are looking at the landscape and the biggest difference is a TOTAL of $3-4 million up front, why would you pick the Rangers over the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros or Cleveland Indians? All four seem to be set up to win now and long-term. The Rangers may have a better chance long-term.

And while I expect MLB to be pretty strict in trying to police any contract extensions for Otani at the outset of his major league career, I think there is only so far that can be pressed. While side handshake deals about extension can't be set up, Otani only needs to look at history to know that when the time comes, Boston and the Yankees have limitless resources. I think the Rangers are one of the four or five most likely destinations, but I don't give any individual team more than a 15-18 percent shot at landing him.