"Jeff Bagwell is getting in the Hall of Fame.

Probably.

If precedent counts for anything.

Which is no guarantee. Which would make about as much sense as Ron Santo getting voted in the year after he died.

Really, the landscape of the Hall of Fame is liable to undergo changes – good or bad – that nobody truly can claim to foresee.

Bagwell had an upswing of support in his second time on the ballot, improving from 42 to 56 percent. While that leaves Bagwell well short of the 75 percent necessary for induction, it puts him on solid footing moving forward."