Geno Smith will be a top-five draft pick. There isn't any doubt about it.

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him go in the top three. Specifically, to Jacksonville second overall.

There might finally be some real intrigue about which player goes first overall -- I would be stunned if the Chiefs don't take a left tackle assuming they can't trade the pick -- and it is one of the more interesting drafts in recent memory in that regard. But this idea that no quarterback gets drafted high, now, with so many quarterbacks changing teams and clubs trading for, or signing veterans, is misguided.

Too many teams have too much legitimate interest in Smith, the standout from West Virginia. In reality, with the quarterback dust essentially settled now in terms of free agency and trades, Smith's stock will only rise the rest of this month. He has certain undeniable traits working in his favor, there remain a ton of teams that still are anything but settled on a quarterback on a long-term basis, and these top draft picks are just so damn cheap these days that it will continue to entice teams to try to trade into the top five.

So anyone pretending that because Carson Palmer and Matt Flynn now have new teams that somehow Geno Smith has been devalued just don't get it. Anyone who thinks that the Cardinals, with the seventh overall pick, are now deeply committed to Palmer as their future at quarterback, and the Raiders, picking third, are now married to Flynn, and Kevin Kolb is the solution for the Bills, etc., etc., either haven't taken a real look at those contracts or simply do not understand the difference between taking a flier on a guy to be a bridge quarterback and finding a new face of the franchise.